A lot has changed in the economy in the last month and this can be seen in subsequent macroeconomic analyzes for Poland coming from financial institutions. In short, they can be described as “it was supposed to be better”. The US and Israel's attack on Iran will limit our development possibilities, and this is due to the increase in oil, fuel and gas prices.
The latest forecast from mBank economists shows what they have improved. “We expect GDP to increase by 3.7 percent in 2026,” they write. Back in March, they forecast an increase of 3.9% y/y, which was the most optimistic estimate among bankers, but also not far from the consensus of 3.8%.
According to the analysis, the main driver of growth will be investments, which should accelerate due to the use of EU funds. “The outbreak of the war in Iran will probably delay some investments – the highest results will probably move to the fourth quarter,” analysts add.
mBank forecasts
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mBank
From the previous forecast, mBank analysts omitted the statement about the increase in demand for labor, which they considered a month ago to be a barrier to cooling wage dynamics. “The increase in wages will be very close to equilibrium levels, i.e. those that reflect changes in productivity and at the same time allow for the achievement of the NBP inflation target in the medium term,” we read in the analysis.
Rising inflation. How long?
Analysts believe that April will bring a correction of the inflation increase in March to 3%. related to the introduction of the CPN package, which reduced fuel prices.
“Inflation will fluctuate rather closer to 2.6-2.8 percent. The next months will probably bring a return to around 3 percent, mainly related to with a higher rate of growth in food prices – mBank economists believe.
According to them, core inflation should remain in the range of 2.4-2.7%.
“Inflation prospects are currently very dependent on global shocks – we are entering a period of long-term overshooting of the NBP (point) target, although we should still move within the band of fluctuations,” we read further.
Interest rates
As a result, the Monetary Policy Council loses its arguments for reducing interest rates. “President Glapiński's rhetoric implies caution. We believe that it will be comfortable for the Monetary Policy Council to remain in a wait-and-see mode,” analysts said.
They point out that their inflation forecasts suggest there is still room for rate cuts. In the horizon of one year the market estimates a decrease in 3M WIBOR by 0.25 percentage points. (a month earlier by 0.5 percentage points).
“However, the communication from the bank suggests little incentive to tighten policy. Our current scenario assumes no changes in interest rates until the end of the year,” we read in the analysis.
Currency rate forecasts
However, the international situation did not induce mBank economists to change the forecasts of the dollar and euro exchange rates. Just like before, they believe that at the end of the year the dollar will cost PLN 3.58 and the euro will cost PLN 4.30.
The correction occurred only in relation to the Swiss franc. Instead of the previous forecast of PLN 4.66 at the end of the year, it is now PLN 4.62.
