2026-03-09 21:11
publication
2026-03-09 21:11
Despite the threat of a regular oil crisis, Monday's session on the New York stock exchanges ended with solid gains. Investors still seem to be hoping that the Trump and Netanyahu team will not lead to the worst.
On Monday morning, it looked like it might be doomsday on world stock exchanges. Crude oil at USD 120 per barrel and diesel at over USD 1,300/ton meant that the threat of an oil crisis actually became a fact. Especially since neither the Israeli authorities nor Donald Trump's team seemed to want to end the war with Iran, which had blocked 1/5 of the world's supplies of crude oil and LNG.
Later, however, the situation on the fuel markets gradually began to calm down. Ultimately, Brent crude oil even became cheaper and ended the day with prices of around USD 92 per barrel. This is over 20% less than during the Asian part of the trade. Apparently, the market “bought” (or rather sold) politicians' declarations. And they talked about the release of the oil reserves of the G7 countries (i.e. primarily the huge US strategic reserve) and about the US government's interventions in the oil futures market.
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The problem is that all available options are either far from sufficient, symbolic or even unreasonable, analysts said.
They do not solve the key problem of the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and the missing 20 million barrels of oil per day.. All this is reminiscent of the events of 4 years ago, only this time it is much worse. The only good solution is either peace with Iran or the effective lifting of the Iranian blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. None of these things are expected in the near future.
Hence, the final result of Monday's session on Wall Street looks extremely optimistic. The declines that had already been eliminated at the end of trading turned into quite impressive increases. The Dow Jones rose by 0.50%, reaching 47,740.80 points. The S&P500 index gained 0.83% and reached 6,795.99 points, rebounding from the lowest levels since November during the day. The Nasdaq Composite increased by 1.38%, reaching 22,695.95 points.
This market revolt was explained by President Trump's statements, which gave hope for an early end to the war with Iran. – I think the war is basically over. They don't have a navy, they don't have communications, they don't have an air force, Trump said in another phone call with the media that day. The US president assessed that American forces were “very ahead of schedule” compared to the originally planned operation schedule, which lasted 4-5 weeks.
Earlier on Monday, in an interview with Fox News, Trump called on tanker captains to pass freely through the Strait of Hormuz and “show some courage.” Trump assured that there was “nothing to be afraid of.” “They've already shot everything they have to shoot, and they better not try anything smart because it will be the end of their country,” Trump threatened Iran on CBS News.
– There are still an awful lot of doubts about the duration of this conflict, as well as the timing of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. And today we saw a reversal in the markets – price movements indicate that investors are looking for opportunities to jump back into the stock markets, Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research in New York, told Reuters.
However, all this does not change the fact that the world is on the brink of an oil crisis and on the threshold of stagflation caused by a sharp increase in energy prices. This situation postpones possible reductions in interest rates by central banks. And some of them may even return to a more restrictive monetary policy and raise interest rates to avoid a resurgence of inflation. This would be bad news for financial asset valuations.
K.K
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