The war is raging, Trump is losing his temper, and Citrini reports on fraud in Hormuz. Meanwhile, WIG20 with the peak of the bull market
Investors returning from the Christmas break found markets in a state of extreme geopolitical tension. Although Donald Trump's ultimatum towards Iran hangs over the trading floors, WIG20 showed great resilience and improved the peak of the bull market before noon. Unfortunately, he quickly withdrew from it and ultimately ended the session with a relegation.
Tuesday's session on the WSE ended with moderate declines, although the morning and the first part of the day looked like a show of strength for the stock market bulls. The WIG20 index was gaining nearly 1.7 percent before noon. and reached the level of 3,491.68 points, which is a new high in the bull market that has been going on since 2022. However, then the bulls gave the initiative to the bears and the end of the session was negative. This is hardly surprising considering the subsequent increasingly surprising threats against Iran made by the US president that appeared during the day.
Thus, the WSE entered ultimately into the sentiment on the core markets, which are increasingly uncertain as to how the leader of the nuclear superpower will behave, declaring during the day that “The entire civilization of Iran will perish this night.” Ultimately, WIG20 lost 0.49%, the broad WIG market dropped by 0.43%, mWIG40 lost 0.23%, and the sWIG80 small-cap index lost 0.44%. The turnover on the broad market amounted to PLN 2.36 billion, of which PLN 1.87 billion concerned WIG20 companies.
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When the trade at Książęca Street closed, the German DAX lost 0.9%, CAC40 fell by 0.5%. The FTSE100 was trading 0.6% lower. The situation overseas was even worsewhere the S&P500 fell by 0.8 and the Nasdaq lost 1.3%, reacting to disturbing reports from the Middle East.
“Last chance” ultimatum and the Citrini report
The main topic of the day was the escalation of tension between Washington and Tehran. President Donald Trump has set an ultimatum that expires at 2:00 a.m. Polish time (Wednesday). Reports of explosions on the Iranian island of Kharg added fuel to the fire. In the morning, investors in Europe could react to the Citrini Research report regarding the Strait of Hormuz (published on April 5, 2026).
Based on direct observation, he reported on the situation in the Strait of Hormuz, which contradicts the common belief that it is completely closed. Report states there is no full blockade of the strait but it acts as a “functional checkpoint” under Iran's control. Citrini has noticed that many tankers pass with their AIS (vessel identification) system disabled, which makes actual traffic is higher than official satellite data indicates. More about the analytical company Citrini Research in the article “How one report caused panic on Wall Street and overestimated the IT sector. Also on the WSE.”
However, the drastic set of headlines had its effect and oil prices continued to rise on the markets. Nevertheless, as mentioned, The WSE performed unexpectedly well. Only in the afternoon, succumbing to collective fears about what the next hours of conflict would bring.
Orlen and banks are dragging the index, Modivo and LPP are under pressure
In the blue-chip portfolio, companies with the largest capitalization performed extremely well. Orlen (0.79%) returned to the historical highs. Strong support for the index was provided by the banking sector, which can discount interest rate cuts expected to end this year. Santander Bank Polska gained 0.83%, PKO BP grew by 1.04% and Pekao gained 0.53%. Alior was still in the black (0.17%).
On the other side of the barricade was Modivo (-7.31%), whose price fell below PLN 90. Large companies from the trade and construction sectors also fared poorly: LPP lost 2.76%, and Budimex fell by 1.8%. KGHM's quotations (-2.57%) were weighed down by declines in copper (-0.5%) and, above all, silver (-3.5%).). Energy companies were also more depressed in WIG20: PGE (-2.16%) and Tauron
(-2.45%).
RPA drives Bumech, former Będzin upwards
Real emotions accompanied trading in smaller companies. The absolute star of the session was Bumech (25.09%). Investors flocked to the company's shares after information about the agreement to purchase a zinc, copper and silver ore mine in South Africa. In the raw materials segment, JSW (6.6%) and Bogdanka (9.79%) also excelled, taking advantage of the upward trend in raw material prices.
No new information on the ESPI channel the ECB company (27.14%), i.e. the former Będzin, gainedwhich, apart from operating in the heat and electricity generation industry, conducts and develops additional operational activities involving trading in energy raw materials. It seems that investors are counting on extra profits due to the current situation with coal prices.
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