The new year for Romanian politics will bring stability in instability. Political scientist: “A year that will look a lot like the second half of 2025”
The year 2026 will not bring a major rupture, but rather an extension of the already existing tensions, but it will be a year that will be in the shadow of the problems inherited from 2025, such as the scandal in the Justice.
President Nicușor Dan and Prime Minister Ilie Bolojan will have a good relationship. PHOTO: Inquam Photos
After a prolonged electoral cycle, marked by local, parliamentary and presidential elections, Romania enters 2026 with a tense, fragmented political scene dominated by public mistrust. The government led by Ilie Bolojan, supported by a fragile coalition PNL-PSD-USR-UDMR, faces simultaneous pressures: protests on the topic of Justice, painful economic reforms, institutional resistance and the steady rise of the AUR. According to political analyst George Jiglău, university lecturer at “Babeș-Bolyai” University in Cluj-Napoca and president of the Center for the Study of Democracy, the year 2026 will not bring a major break, but rather an extension of the already existing tensions: “A year that will be very similar to the second half of 2025. An extension of 2025, with the same big themes on the agenda”, says Jiglău for “Weekend Truth”.
Justice, the political spark of the beginning of the year
The scandal related to Justice, special pensions and magistrates' privileges is, in the analyst's opinion, far from over. “I think that the whole story is still unfolding and it is difficult to anticipate with this multitude of actors where it will take it,” Jiglău says. Unlike the episodes from the Ordinance 13 period, the context is different: the Justice system enjoys much lower public confidence, and discontent is more diffuse but persistent. This issue risks directly affecting the stability of the government. “Always the subject of Justice, when it appears, creates a stir both in society and in politics,” the analyst emphasizes, adding that the lack of a firm reaction from the Government can fuel public frustration.
For Prime Minister Ilie Bolojan, the Justice scandal is paradoxical: it can help him politically, but it can also erode him. “Cynical, it might help him, because a subject is created where he is not the main negative character”, explains George Jiglău. In a context where the prime minister was perceived more like “the accountant who comes and cuts”, the conflict in the Justice temporarily moves the public pressure in another direction. However, wear and tear is inevitable. “If along the way he loses his political support and his public image wears out, it will be more and more difficult”, warns the analyst. The reform of special pensions thus becomes a crucial test: a possible validation at the Constitutional Court could work as a “sympathy valve” for Bolojan, and a failure would deepen the instability.
PSD, sword of Damocles
Although the PSD periodically floats the scenario of leaving the government, George Jiglău is categorical: “Rationally speaking, PSD has no way to leave the government. If it does, it would be an extremely bad move.” The reasons are multiple: access to government resources, the risk of isolation in the opposition alongside the AUR and the prospect of early elections. “Anyone who goes in opposition is there with GOLD. It was seen how difficult it was for the USR”, says Jiglău, emphasizing that the social democrats would not win the election from such a step. In addition, the government circular offers the Kiseleff party the perspective of the position of prime minister: “Why would you do this when you know it's your turn to govern?”.
The PSD's recent behavior is, in the analyst's opinion, counterproductive. “I think he's playing really bad these days”says Jiglău, referring to the motions initiated and the attacks from within the Coalition. Although PSD claims that “understood the message of society”the reality seems different: “They do politics just like before”. The political cost exists, but it does not necessarily hit the traditional PSD electorate. “It costs them in relation to a part of society that doesn't vote with them anyway“, explains Jiglău. The problem is one of credibility and coherence, especially in a context dominated by protests and mistrust.
PNL has no alternative to Bolojan
Within the PNL, a change of prime minister seems unlikely. “I don't see who could come in his place”says George Jiglău. The old guard of the party is associated with electoral failures, and the current leadership is behind the only major victory of the PNL in recent years: Ciprian Ciucu winning the Capital City Hall. “Why cast them aside? And who shall come?”asks the analyst rhetorically, concluding that Ilie Bolojan remains the main bet of the liberals until at least 2026.
For USR, the outlook is bleak. “At the moment it is a party of 10-12%“, says Jiglău, indicating the lack of a clear identity and the inability to establish itself as a real alternative. Although it occasionally benefits from the useful vote, the party fails to capitalize politically. “The good governance and anti-corruption platform cannot mobilize more than that“explains the analyst, adding that the USR is not perceived as the force capable of defeating the AUR or running a government on its own.
In contrast to the other parties, AUR seems immune to the turmoil of governance: “They will continue to be at least where they are now, no matter what happens,” says Jiglău. The theme of Justice is not a central one for AUR, which prefers to capitalize on identity and anti-system themes. “They can deliver slogans and slogans and their electorate will be satisfied“, explains the analyst, emphasizing that AUR benefits from a constant confirmation of its own speech.
A correct president-prime waltz?
Jiglău does not see, despite the media reports on this topic, a misunderstanding between President Dan and Prime Minister Bolojan: “I don't see a conflict there. There have been somewhat different positions since the VAT increase in the summer. Because we lived through times when the president and the prime minister were perfectly aligned, we have come to see conflict where people have different views.”. Jiglău did not notice any tension, neither personal nor between the two institutions. “We lived in times in Romania when there was a real tension between the palaces and it doesn't compare to what it is now”.
The analyst believes that, moving towards 2028, Nicușor Dan will want to have a party that will support him, in the longer term, let's say a presidential party. “He realized that the USR, or at least the USR alone, has no way of giving him the political support he would need”. In this context, the only chance would be a USR-PNL political alliance. An alliance in which the two parties say: “we are the pro-European reformists, a bit conservative, we are the ones who keep Romania in the Euro-Atlantic area, in the context where the PSD is whatever the wind blows”. There is no alternative, says the expert, for President Dan and Prime Minister Bolojan to a good relationship.
A fragmented policy
George Jiglău's conclusion is nuanced: 2026 will be a difficult but predictable year. “There will be instability, but a stability in instability”he says. The coalition will hold out, not out of force, but out of lack of alternatives. Reforms will continue piecemeal, under external pressure and with internal resistance. “I don't think the parties want elections. I don't think the president wants elections. And I don't see why anyone would want to be in opposition with AUR“, summarizes the analyst. Thus, 2026 is shaping up to be a year of forced compromises, controlled tensions and a government that moves forward not because it is solid, but because collapse would be too costly for all actors involved.
