The myth of chain mark-ups: why diesel shouldn't drive up the prices of off-the-shelf products
Accelerating fuel prices, fueled by geopolitical tensions and oil market volatility, are putting increasing pressure on carriers and logistics chains, but the impact on the final prices paid by consumers remains, in most cases, limited. Although transportation costs are rising rapidly and forcing companies to adjust their rates, experts point out that significant increases on the shelf are usually generated by a broader set of economic factors, not just fuel prices.
All products will become more expensive due to transport costs, increased due to fuels
Tensions surrounding Iran and risks to traffic through the Strait of Hormuz have once again pushed the oil market into a major stress zone, with immediate effects on fuel prices. For Romania, this new external shock is already translating into higher prices at the pump and additional pressure on transport costs. The price of fuel ended up exceeding 10 lei/liter, which marked one of the fastest increases in recent years (over 2.2 lei/liter in about 60 days).
“Similar to the pandemic, the market reacts to uncertainty, but the current speed of propagation is much higher. In the technical structure of transport costs in the logistics industry, fuel is the dominant component. Therefore, the increase of more than 2 lei per liter since the beginning of the year (an increase of almost 30%), has a large impact on operational costs and requires quick reactions from the industry so that tariffs remain aligned with the market reality“, explains Cătălina Zamfir, international transport manager at Raben Romania.
Logistics companies, reaction to the wave of price increases
In this context, transport companies have adopted standard measures, frequently used in periods of high cost volatility. These include adjusting rates based on actual cost increases, moving from quarterly or monthly indexation to weekly indexation, and updating calculation formulas so that they more accurately reflect the current price at the pump. Feedbacks are practical and necessary mechanisms to maintain a fair correlation between the actual costs incurred by operators and the rates billed.
Fuel accounts for approximately 35% of the total cost of road transport, making it one of the most sensitive operational components. Any sudden change in price is directly reflected in the cost per kilometer, and the effects are felt both in the transport segment and in planning, distribution and operational efficiency along the entire logistics flow.
Road transport supports the operation of industrial production, the supply of retail and food chains, and approximately 85% of consumer goods in Europe reach the final consumer “on wheels”. For this reason, fuel volatility affects the logistics industry as a whole, from distribution and warehousing to the supply flows of manufacturing and retail companies.
How much would the products actually become more expensive?
However, the effects are not uniformly felt by all economic sectors, emphasizes representative Raben. While for carriers the shock of high prices is direct and immediate, in other sectors the impact is visible gradually and depends on the cost structure and the ability of companies to temporarily absorb price increases.
The increase in the price of diesel has an important effect on transport costs, which can rise by 8-15%, but the influence on the final price of products is limited, Raben's analysis shows.
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This is explained by the fact that logistics, even if it is essential for the functioning of the economy, has a controlled share in the final price, and transport represents, on average, only 5-10% of the price of a product.
For example, for a product that costs 20 lei, if shipping represents 8% of the final price, then the shipping cost is 1.6 lei. If this transport cost increases by 12%, the impact on the final price of the product is approximately 0.19 lei. Thus, the price of the product would rise from 20 lei to approximately 20.19 lei.
“This calculation shows that a sharp increase in the price of fuel does not, by itself, justify substantial increases in the prices of products on the shelf. If larger increases occur, they are more likely to be explained by other factors, such as energy, raw materials or manufacturers' operational costs“, adds Cătălina Zamfir, International Transport Manager at Raben Romania.
Road charges have increased in Europe
With fuel costs accounting for up to 35% of total costs for fleets operating internationally, the share of road taxes lags far behind.
“Romanian carriers operating on international routes choose to fuel in countries such as Hungary, where costs are more competitive, and foreign operators transiting or carrying out activities in Romania avoid local fueling because they cannot recover their excise duty.
Practically, important volumes of fuel move outside the country, which means lower receipts from taxes and excises for the Romanian state and a loss of competitiveness for the local transport market“, said George Dobre, sales manager Romania at TFC for “Adevărul”.
The year 2026 brought road toll increases, expansion of toll networks and a shift to new toll collection models for road hauliers. In Hungary and Austria, the rate of road tolls per kilometer exceeded diesel costs.
In Poland, the tariffs have already been indexed from January 2026 by 5%, and since February the taxes in the e-TOLL system have increased by 40% for trucks and buses.
In Austria, the new truck tariffs have risen by 7.7% from 1 January 2026, taking into account the number of axles, CO₂ emissions and noise level.
From 1 July 2026, the Netherlands will replace the Eurovignette with a mileage tax, calculated according to vehicle weight and CO₂ emissions, applicable on most main roads. In the same period, Romania will introduce the TollRo electronic system for vehicles over 3.5 tons, in principle “pay as you go”.
New price increases in 2026: the increase in tariffs for road transport will be seen on the shelf
Charging per kilometer will make transport rates even more expensive
Mihai Teodorescu, director of Eltra Logis, one of the main players in the niche logistics, transport and storage market, stated that Romania is preparing to introduce a new road toll system pay as you gowhich will replace the wreckage for vehicles over 3.5 tons.
According to him, charging per kilometer, differentiated according to vehicle mass and emission class, will lead to higher costs for domestic and transit transport.
“We are in a moment of structural recalibration of road transport at European level. Increasing infrastructure charges, increasing fuel excises and introducing traffic restrictions in key transit states are fundamentally changing the way transport fleets are planned and operated. These developments have a direct impact on fuel costs, tolls, delivery times and efficient use of resourcesexerting constant pressure on operating margins. In this context, the adjustment of transport tariffs becomes a strategic decision necessary to ensure the sustainability of operations in the medium and long term, the continuity of services and the maintenance of quality, safety and predictability standards“, declared Mihai Teodorescu.
