State Public Debt at the end of the 4th quarter of 2025 amounted to PLN 1,913.5 billion, which means an increase of 5.0%. within one quarter (+ PLN 91.2 billion), the Ministry of Finance announced in a press release. Compared to the end of 2024, PDP increased by PLN 302.1 billion (+18.7%).
However, this is only part of the truth about public debt, because it does not take into account budget-related institutions. The total debt of the so-called general government increased by PLN 323 billion during the year and by PLN 113 billion in the quarter to reach PLN 2 trillion, 335 billion and 154 million.
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The key here is the debt-to-GDP ratio, which shows whether the debt is growing faster or slower than the economy. Unfortunately it is much faster. At the end of 2025 general government public debt reached 60 percent. (+1.8 percentage points of GDP in the quarter and +4.9 percentage points in the year), and precisely to 59.97 percent. GDP – according to data from the Ministry of Finance.
Constitutional threshold
Let's just remind you that 60 percent threshold GDP for Poland is within the EU criteria (convergence criteria), but also in the Constitution of the Republic of Poland. The European Commission has agreed not to impose regulations on Poland at this time due to its exceedance as a result of the war situation and in connection with the plan to return to the 60% threshold. in the medium term (2030-2038). However, exceeding the threshold should trigger mechanisms in the Constitution that make further indebtedness more difficult.
However, over time, the provision in the Constitution stating that what is and what is not a debt depends on the law resulted in a large part of the debt no longer being a constitutional debt. Although realistically we are at 60 percent. GDP, in the so-called We have only reached the threshold of 49.1% of the State Public Debt (PDP), which means that the government still has 11 percentage points. GDP reserve before it violates the barrier of the Constitution.
Level 60 percent is almost as difficult for the Polish state budget to handle as 116 percent. GDP in the case of France. The yield on Polish government 10-year bonds is currently 5.9%. per year, while for France it is 3.7 percent. If all debt had an interest rate at this level, then… interest repayment costs would consume 3.5%. GDP per year in the case of Poland and 4.3 percent GDP for France.
What is the reason for the increase in public debt?
The change in PDP in Q4 2025 was the result of:
- increase in the debt of the government subsector by PLN 83.3 billion (+4.9%), including the consolidated debt of the State Treasury (State) by PLN 83.6 billion (+4.9%);
- an increase in the debt of the local government subsector by PLN 7.9 billion (+7.0%), with an increase in the debt of local government units and their associations by PLN 7.5 billion (+7.2%).
- decrease in the debt of the social security subsector by PLN 0.03 million (-0.3%).
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PDP change throughout 2025 was the resultant of:
- increase in the debt of the government subsector by PLN 296.3 billion (+19.8%), including the consolidated debt of the State Treasury by PLN 296.2 billion (+19.8%);
- an increase in the debt of the local government subsector by PLN 5.8 billion (+5.1%), with an increase in the debt of local government units by PLN 4.8 billion (+4.4%);
- a decrease in the debt of the social security subsector by PLN 0.1 million (-0.4%).
General government debt
The debt of the general government sector (EDP debt), which is one of the elements of the Maastricht fiscal criterion, amounted to PLN 2,335.2 billion at the end of the fourth quarter of 2025. The change in the amount of EDP debt in Q4 2025, apart from changes in PDP, was mainly influenced by:
- increase in the debt of the Armed Forces Support Fund (FWSZ) by PLN 20.0 billion;
- increase in the consolidated debt of the COVID-19 Prevention Fund (FPC) by PLN 5.2 billion;
- increase in the debt of the Assistance Fund (FP) by PLN 1.8 billion;
- a decrease in the impact of including enterprises in the general government sector by PLN 2.5 billion.
Apart from what influenced PDP, throughout 2025, the change in EDP's debt resulted from: :
- increase in the debt of the Armed Forces Support Fund (FWSZ) by PLN 35.9 billion;
- a decrease in the consolidated debt of the Polish Development Fund (PFR) by PLN 33.7 billion as a result of the redemption of PFR0325 and PFR0925 bonds;
- increase in the debt of the Assistance Fund (FP) by PLN 7.0 billion;
- a decrease in the consolidated debt of the COVID-19 Prevention Fund (FPC) by PLN 3.6 billion, mainly as a result of the redemption of FPC0725 bonds;
- a decrease in the balance of deposits on the MF and TS accounts held by funds located in BGK by PLN 10.6 billion, which resulted in an increase in EDP's debt as a result of a decrease in the consolidation of mutual liabilities;
- increase in EDP's debt in relation to PDP related to CIRS transactions by PLN 7.3 billion;
- a decrease in the impact of including enterprises in the general government sector by PLN 5.3 billion.
