Ivo Daalder, former US ambassador to NATO, is a senior research fellow at the Belfer Center at Harvard University.
When it comes to war and diplomacy – as in business – the president of the United States Donald Trump doesn't care about the details. Nor does he rely on the policymaking process, in-depth analysis and expert advice that has been the norm for other presidents. He is a leader who leads intuition. As he himself said, “sometimes it tells him more than anyone else's brain could ever tell him.”
So far, Trump has gotten away with relying on intuition. He was quick to use force, achieving results in Iran last June and in Venezuela just three months ago. He has also helped end conflicts, although most of the eight wars he claims to have ended (ironically, he includes the June war between Israel and Iran) were either on the brink of ending or, as in the case of the Congo, never actually ended.
In Iran, the US president's premonitions finally failed him.
Four weeks of bombing did not bring about the rapid change in the Iranian regime or its behavior that Trump expected. Instead, Tehran turned the tables by attacking Gulf states, closing the Strait of Hormuz and imposing rapidly increasing costs on the region and the world. In this way, Iran finally became an adversary unwilling to submit to Trump's whims – even after bombing 10,000. goals.
For many — including Trump's last three predecessors — it was all too predictable. Therefore, during their terms of office, all of them, striving to prevent Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon, they favored diplomacy over war. Trump, however, did not delve into the details or analysis that led former presidents George W. Bush, Barack Obama and Joe Biden to abandon pressure to bomb Iran — including from Israel.
And now his belief that a bombing campaign will eliminate the threat that has faced every U.S. president since Jimmy Carter is not coming true.
Trump's people
Desperate attempts to force an agreement by claiming that Tehran is begging for one, and the constant extension of deadlines with threats to bomb the plants, are signs that Trump realizes that he is increasingly torn between two bad options: the unpleasant necessity of escalating the conflict with ground troops, or accepting an agreement that he could probably secure without war.
Many rightly point to numerous shortcomings in the preparation, planning and conduct of war with Iran to explain why Trump found himself in this situation. The president himself admitted he was surprised that Iran responded with an attack, attacked Gulf allies and closed the Strait of Hormuz — despite repeated warnings that it would do so.
However, diplomacy, both in the period leading up to the war and now, also leaves much to be desired.
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Instead of relying on diplomats with the necessary negotiation skills and experience with Iranian partners — who, by the president's own admission, are “great negotiators” — Trump chose friends and family, people who lack the requisite experience and know-how.
The president, his son-in-law Jared Kushner and his friend and special envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff believe their experience in the private sector as negotiators makes them excellent diplomats. However, the skills needed for these two jobs are very different – and they are not easily transferable.
Poor results
In the private sector, negotiators agree on the general points of a contract, leaving the details to lawyers. However, in diplomacy what matters is the strategic and historical context, as well as knowledge about the other side's motivations, which differ significantly from the simple pursuit of profit.
All of this can be seen in the approach of Witkoff and Kushner. They present a list of conditions, or rather a multi-point plan – 28 points for Ukraine, 20 for the Gaza Strip, 15 for Iran. They then try to trick the other party into accepting him. Meanwhile, these points are often unclear, open to multiple interpretations, and almost always disconnected from the context of the conflict they are intended to resolve.
The idea is that if one side holds cards, the other side must fold. But diplomacy doesn't work like that.
Fire after the US-Israeli attack on an oil storage facility near Tehran, March 18, 2026.HASSAN GHAEDI / ANADOLU / ANADOLU VIA AFP / AFP
In the case of Ukraine, 28 points were developed mainly by Russia. Kyiv firmly rejected them. Then, the new 19-point plan developed with Ukraine was predictably rejected by Moscow. Today, the widely announced negotiations that were supposed to end the war in one day were suspended, and the conflict entered its fifth year.
A ceasefire was eventually reached in the Gaza Strip and all hostages were released – the main goals of both Israel and the United States. However, there is still no peace in the enclave. The Gaza Strip is divided into two parts, one of which is controlled by Israel and the other by Hamas. Hamas has not demilitarized, and Israel violates the ceasefire almost daily.
The price of Trump's mistake
The prospects for quickly reaching a peace agreement with Iran are not better. The much-discussed 15-point plan is a list maximalist demandsincluding complete denuclearization, strict missile restrictions and an end to support for regional allies, all of which Iran has consistently rejected.
Even if the bombing campaign ultimately convinced current leaders in Tehran to negotiate an end to the war, their country's experience with the Trump administration would make reaching any agreement extremely difficult. After all, this is the same US president who withdrew from the 2015 nuclear agreement.which Iran signed with the Obama administration, even though Iran complied with the terms. Moreover, Tehran twice agreed to enter into indirect talks after Trump returned to office — and twice these talks were interrupted by Israel and the US, which bombed the country and its leaders.
Indeed, before the war began, Iran was in serious talks to limit its nuclear program. However, Witkoff and Kushner apparently did not understand the concessions Iran seemed ready to make. These included halting uranium enrichment, dilution and possible removal of enriched uranium stockpiles.
Witkoff also wrongly concluded that Iran's insistence on its inalienable right to enrich uranium and possess 440 kg of uranium – which was widely known – somehow meant that it was not serious about the agreement.
Now Trump is stuck in a situation of his own creation. His intuition failed him. His negotiators do not know how to deal with a determined enemy who seeks his own survival by inflicting maximum pain on others. And we all pay for it.
I’m Ashley Davis as an editor, I’m committed to upholding the highest standards of integrity and accuracy in every piece we publish. My work is driven by curiosity, a passion for truth, and a belief that journalism plays a crucial role in shaping public discourse. I strive to tell stories that not only inform but also inspire action and conversation.
