Since the outbreak of the war in the Middle East at the end of February, wholesale prices of Eurosuper 95 unleaded petrol in Orlen have increased by PLN 1,267 from PLN 4,466 to the current PLN 5,733 per cubic meter, and Ekodiesel diesel oil by PLN 2,449 from PLN 4,809 to PLN 7,258 per cubic meter. Analysts expect further increases in retail prices.
The last time wholesale fuel prices in Orlen changed, according to data published by the concern, was on Saturday, March 21 – in the case of Ekodiesel diesel oil, it was a significant increase, by PLN 521, from PLN 6,737 on March 20 to PLN 7,258 per cubic meter, while in the case of unleaded Eurosuper 95 gasoline, it was a slight decrease of PLN 6, from PLN 5,739 from March 20 to PLN 5,733 per cubic meter.
According to Orlen's wholesale fuel price list, on February 28, i.e. on the day of the outbreak of the conflict in the Middle East after the US and Israel's attack on Iran, unleaded Eurosuper 95 petrol cost PLN 4,466 and diesel oil PLN 4,809 per cubic meter. Taking into account, after the March 21 correction, the company's current wholesale prices for both of these basic fuels, this means an increase in less than a month by PLN 1,267 and PLN 2,449 per cubic meter, respectively..
At the end of last week, the Reflex office pointed out that the number of gas stations in the country where diesel costs above PLN 8 per liter is increasing, emphasizing in the analysis that this cannot be a surprise, since the purchase price of diesel at a station on the domestic wholesale market is currently PLN 7.85 to PLN 7.90 per liter gross.
“Everything indicates that next week the purchase price of diesel at gas stations will exceed PLN 8/l gross for good,” Reflex noted in a statement dated Friday, March 20. He also pointed out that next week may be the first week since October 2022 when the average national retail price of diesel in the country will exceed the barrier of PLN 8 per liter and “in addition, it may set a new historical record.”
Reflex reported that it expects that in the coming week, from March 23 to 27, the price of EU95 petrol will increase by 29 groszy to PLN 7.19 per liter, while for diesel fuel drivers can pay PLN 8.19 per liter, which means an increase of 31 groszy.
At the same time, Reflex recalled that the previous record of average prices of diesel oil at gas stations in the country, set in mid-October 2022, was PLN 8.08 per liter, and – as noted in the analysis – the VAT rate for fuel was reduced from 23 percent. up to 8 percent; If it weren't for this, the average price of diesel at gas stations would exceed PLN 9 per liter.
With the start of the US and Israeli attacks on Iran on February 28, global crude oil prices as well as finished fuel prices began to increase.. The conflict in the Middle East virtually resulted in the closure of the Strait of Hormuz for maritime traffic from the Persian Gulf. This has caused export congestion, pushing the price of crude oil above $100 a barrel, even to around $120, with the recent price being $107 to $112.
After the outbreak of the war, Orlen assured that crude oil supplies were delivered to its refinery according to schedule. He emphasized that thanks to the diversification of supply directions, he reduced the risk related to the unstable situation in the Middle East. The company also announced on March 9 that its margin on diesel oil had been reduced from PLN 25 to “almost zero” to limit the effects of a sharp increase in global fuel prices.
At that time, Orlen also announced that from March 12 to May 3, each driver using the Orlen Vitay application for the next eight weekends will buy up to 50 liters of gasoline or diesel oil at the company's gas stations at a reduced price of up to PLN 0.35. after meeting certain conditions.
The government is preparing a “fuel shield”?
Minister of Energy Miłosz Motyka, when asked on March 20, in the context of the conflict in the Middle East, about the increase in fuel prices and possible actions, e.g. tax or excise, replied that he was talking about it with Minister Andrzej Domański, because the Ministry of Finance is responsible for tax and excise policy. He also pointed out that in the matter of fuels, it has already been possible to: reduce Orlen's margin and prepare appropriate reserves and secure supplies.
– We do not rule out the tax scenario. I think that Minister Domański will announce it directly. We will be making these decisions in the next dozen or so days, but we can see today that this worst-case scenario is being realized across the entire Middle East. Attacks on refineries lead to direct losses in the import of finished fuel by first Asian and later European countries. This has a direct impact on prices, Motyka said last Friday.
He assessed that the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East and its long duration is the greatest crisis on the oil, crude oil and product markets in over 50 years. – The unprecedented scale of the release of reserves by the countries of the International Energy Agency of the IEA, including with the consent of Poland, de facto unanimously, 400 million barrels, twice as much as during the crisis on the fuel market after the full-scale aggression of Russia against Ukraine, shows what kind of crisis we are dealing with – added Motyka.
He also mentioned that in some countries there is a state of emergency related to the availability of fuel, and in Asian countries there is also a crisis on the gas market.
– Without the situation in the Middle East calming down, without clearing the Strait of Hormuz and without stopping attacks on strategic critical infrastructure, there will be no decline in prices. However, as much as we can provide relief, we will make the decision together with Minister Domański. I think it will be in the next few days, said the Minister of Energy.
The Speaker of the Iranian Parliament, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, announced that Tehran will consider the energy infrastructure of countries in the region to be legitimate targets if the US attacks Iranian power plants, Reuters reported on Sunday. “Critical energy infrastructure and refineries will be considered legitimate targets immediately after attacks on Iran's power plants and infrastructure,” the head of Iran's parliament wrote on the X website, adding that these facilities would be “irreversibly destroyed.”
The statement is a response to the ultimatum of US President Donald Trump, who announced on Saturday evening on the Truth Social website that the US will destroy Iranian power plants if the Strait of Hormuz is not completely opened within 48 hours.
Iranian armed forces have repeatedly struck ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz since the beginning of the war. (PAP)
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