On Saturday, March 21, 2026, Orlen decided to quite radically increase the wholesale price of diesel oil. Just a day earlier, on March 20, 1,000 liters of diesel cost PLN 6,737 in Orlen (including excise duty and fuel fee, but excluding VAT). After adding VAT, it meant a wholesale price of PLN 8.29 per liter, while the day before it was PLN 8.14.
On Saturday, the wholesale price increased to PLN 8.92 per liter including VAT (PLN 7,258 wholesale) – this is a jump that analysts describe as typical of crisis situations on the market.
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Minimal adjustment in gasoline prices
At the same time, Orlen slightly reduced wholesale gasoline prices – the change was less than PLN 1 per liter, which will not significantly affect retail prices of this fuel.
The geopolitical situation in the Middle East is primarily responsible for the sharp increase in prices. The route through the Strait of Hormuz, through which approximately 20% of world oil supplies, remains closed. The armed conflict is spreading to other countries in the region, and the fuel infrastructure is being destroyed – its reconstruction will take years.
But this is only part of the explanation, because the price of oil applies to both gasoline and diesel, and it is mainly the latter that is increasing. Orlen's wholesale prices for diesel have increased because they are adjusted to the price index for this fuel in Europe, the company explained to Business Insider.
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Despite declarations about the possibility of ending hostilities, markets do not react to politicians' announcements. The price of a barrel of Brent crude oil at the end of the week remained at approximately USD 110. — this is almost twice as much as at the beginning of January 2026.
Will the government reduce VAT on fuel?
Prime Minister Donald Tusk, asked whether the government would reduce VAT on fuel due to rising prices at gas stations, replied that he “keeps it in reserve all the time.”
– The situation is extremely dynamic – he admitted on TVN24. — These relatively modest tools of action – i.e. what can be done on margin, excise duty, VAT – We must save it for the darkest hour, because unfortunately it may happen at any moment – he added.
— We don't know how this war will go. I have the right to assume that actions will likely be intensified, he noted, adding that he must be vigilant.
Fuel price forecasts for the next days
According to e-Petrol analysts, in the week of March 23-29, diesel prices at stations may average PLN 8.09-8.25 per liter, and gasoline prices may slightly exceed PLN 7. Experts emphasize, however, that increases in wholesale prices may soon translate into further increases at gas stations, and a nine in front of the diesel price is not out of the question.
