Trump blames Israel for this attack. The gas war is getting out of control
This is a clear escalation of the conflict that energy industry experts feared the most. Damage to oil and gas infrastructure may require years of repairs, and its effects may further destabilize the already fragile global economy.
President Donald Trump quickly distanced himself from Israel's actions. A person familiar with the behind-the-scenes decisions at the White House admitted that the attack had caused serious concern there.
The attack, which further drove up oil prices, highlighted growing differences between Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu.
— The Israelis behaved very recklessly, said a person from White House circles speaking anonymously, adding that Qatar appealed to the US authorities to stop attacks on energy infrastructure. — There is a lot of frustration about this.
I told him: don't do it. We are independent, but we have very good relationships. We work together, but sometimes he does something I don't like. And now it won't be like that anymore
— Trump reported.
The president also assured on Wednesday evening on the Truth Social platform that “There will be NO MORE ISRAEL ATTACKS on this extremely important and valuable South Pars deposit.” According to a source associated with US strategy in the Middle East the entry was intended to reassure the Qatari authorities.
“Bibi Netanyahu is manipulating him”
On Wednesday, Trump also spoke with Qatari leaders and assured that he had no knowledge of Israeli plans to attack South Pars and that he did not support such a strategy, said an anonymous source familiar with the details of the conversation.
The only way for Trump to see the light is to realize that Bibi Netanyahu is manipulating him. And the war is harming the United States, destabilizing the Persian Gulf region and straining relations with European and Middle Eastern allies. The only beneficiary is Netanyahu
said this person.
The White House declined to comment, referring to Trump's social media post.
During Thursday's press conference, Netanyahu briefly stated: Israel acted alone.
Binyamin Netanyahu and Donald TrumpJIM LO SCALZO / POOL / PAP
“He is interested in one thing – maintaining power”
Some countries have warned the Trump administration that Netanyahu may deliberately seek to expand the conflict because the war enjoys strong public support in Israel, according to a source familiar with tensions between the White House and Gulf states.
Netanyahu doesn't care about how Republicans do in the midterm elections or Trump's legacy. He is interested in one thing – maintaining power. And the war helps him in this
– added the source.
Both Trump and Vice President JD Vance announced a limited military operation, after which oil and gas prices would fall. However, a new wave of attacks makes a quick end to the conflict less and less realistic. Especially since the speaker of the Iranian parliament, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, described the attack on a key gas field as a “new level of confrontation”.
Iran's foreign minister, Abbas Aragchi, wrote on Thursday on the X platform that Iran's attacks on energy infrastructure in Qatar and Saudi Arabia are only a “FRACTION of our strength.”
“The only reason for restraint was respect for calls for de-escalation,” he added, referring to Trump's tweet. “ZERO restraint if our installations are attacked again.”
“We are facing a long period of high energy prices”
According to Jason Bordoff, director of the Energy Policy Center at Columbia University, the conflict is at a “very dangerous moment” where it could quickly get out of control and escalate in unpredictable ways.
If there is a spiral of retaliation and serious damage to energy infrastructure, we will face a long period of high energy prices that could hit the global economy even harder.
– he warned.
Although high fuel prices on the domestic market may be beneficial for the energy sector, the war has reached a dangerous “turning point” – said Trump's former energy adviser, who is in contact with the White House. He noted that the prospect of a quick end to the conflict is decreasing day by day, and the specter of recession is becoming a “real threat.”
— But no one talks about it out loud – he added.
Energy spine under fire
Qatar, one of the world's largest natural gas producers, has suffered major losses – according to Reuters, infrastructure repairs could take three to five years. This means that as many as 17 percent its LNG export capacity will remain disabled during this time.
The South Pars field is the most important source of energy for Iran — crucial for the national energy grid, electricity production and heating — unlike the island of Khark, which is primarily of export importance.
Chark represents the money needed to stay in power. Both places are extremely important and have long-term consequences. Each of them destabilizes the situation – just in different ways
— said a source familiar with U.S. strategy in the region.
Additionally, as noted, South Pars is also a source of funding and energy for the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, which gives this goal even greater strategic importance.
