“China does not plan to invade Taiwan in 2027, and Russia does not want the war to end.”

China is not currently planning to invade Taiwan in 2027 and considers such an operation risky, according to a US intelligence report on global threats. The intelligence also estimates that Russia sees no reason to end the war in Ukraine, although US peace efforts may change this and lead to a thaw in relations with Moscow.

The Annual Threat Assessment report published on Wednesday indicates that the Chinese authorities do not currently plan to invade Taiwan in 2027, nor do they have a set timetable for such an operation. According to American services, in 2026 Beijing will continue to strive to create conditions for possible unification with Taiwan, while avoiding direct conflict. US intelligence estimates that the Chinese leadership prefers to achieve unification without the use of force, but at the same time the People's Liberation Army continues to develop military plans and capabilities in case it is ordered to take over the island.

Taiwan were extremely 'risky'

The report emphasizes that Chinese officials are aware of the fact that an invasion of Taiwan would be extremely difficult and carry a high risk of failure, especially in the event of American intervention. Nevertheless, Beijing publicly declares that unification is necessary to achieve the goal of “national renewal” by 2049 – the 100th anniversary of the proclamation of the People's Republic of China.

The US services pointed out that China has replaced Russia as the main competitor of the USA, among others. in space. They also noted that the PRC significantly supports Moscow in its ability to wage war in Ukraine and mitigate the effects of Western sanctions.

“China's exports of dual-use goods and technology to Russia help Moscow maintain its defense production while reducing its incentive to achieve a ceasefire in Ukraine,” the document says.

Russia he sees no reason to stop fighting

In the section devoted to Russia, American intelligence estimates that Russia maintained the advantage in the war with Ukraine last year and sees no reason to stop fighting as long as its forces are gaining ground. Moscow is almost certain that it will win on the battlefield and force Kiev to reach an agreement on its own terms. However, the report's authors noted that American peace efforts could change this dynamic and create conditions for a “thaw” in relations with Russia.

“U.S. peace efforts have the potential to change these dynamics and alleviate some of the regional impacts of the conflict. A permanent end to the war in Ukraine could pave the way for a thaw in U.S.-Russian relations and improved bilateral geostrategic and trade relations,” it said.

According to the authors, the continuation of the war increases the risk of both unintentional and intentional escalation of the conflict to the level of a direct clash between Russia and NATO forces.

“Russia's continued willingness to sabotage its allies, the US and European countries, in order to disrupt their support for Ukraine – such as the railway explosion in Poland in November 2025 – is an example of this threat,” the report says.

The document assessed that despite war losses, Russian ground forces are increasing in number, and the air force and navy remain operational and are even more effective than before the full-scale invasion. Russia is developing hypersonic weapons systems, anti-satellite assets and underwater capabilities. In the services' assessment, the most serious threat from Russia remains the risk of the so-called an escalation spiral that could lead to direct military action with NATO, including the exchange of nuclear strikes.

From Washington Oskar Górzyński (PAP)

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