Donald Trump and his controversial decisions are driving the bookmaking industry. In recent months, the market for betting on the decisions of the US President's administration has been developing dynamically – reports the Washington Post. According to estimates, the value of this segment may exceed USD 200 million, but the increase in popularity also raises numerous doubts.
Currently, the value of political bets on the Kalshi platform is approximately USD 129 million. In turn, on Polymarket, over 370,000. users have already bet a total of over USD 90 million. for political events.
The most popular bets are on the potential actions of Donald Trump and his administration. Users can bet on, among other things, whether the United States will attack Iran in the next six months or who will become the next president of the US central bank.
Truth Social, a social media platform owned by Trump, is also planning to enter the prediction market and plans to introduce election-related betting offers, reports the Washington Post.
“We are democratizing information and empowering everyday Americans to benefit from the wisdom of the crowd, turning free speech into actionable predictions of the future,” said Devin Nunes, president of Trump Media. Donald Trump Jr. is currently an investor in Polymarket and an advisor to Kalshi.
Although political betting platforms have existed for years, it was only the 2024 US presidential election that attracted mass interest and billions in turnover.
However, the development of the forecast markets raises serious concerns. The Washington Post draws attention to the risk of insider trading, market manipulation and even incentives for people associated with the government to influence betting results.
Concern was raised by a case from early January, when one Polymarket user earned over PLN 400,000. dollars, betting on the timely dismissal of Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro. This event sparked a discussion about potential irregularities.
In response, Rep. Ritchie Torres of New York has introduced a bill to prohibit government officials from betting on events they can influence or about which they have confidential information.
