The measures proposed by the Ministry of Energy to combat the fuel crisis. What are the expected maximum prices?

The Ministry of Energy sent the leaders of the parties in the ruling coalition a series of proposals aimed at reducing the effects of fuel prices. According to the document obtained by HotNews, the reduction or even full exemption from the payment of fuel excise for certain sectors of the economy, the restart of the Lukoil refinery or the declaration of a crisis situation on the crude oil market are being considered.

The document begins with a presentation of the situation on the international oil market, as well as the hydrocarbon stocks available to Romania and the sources of their purchase.

Price capping, one of the options

The Ministry of Energy proposes two fiscal measures. The first of them is the adoption of an emergency ordinance regarding the declaration of a crisis situation on the crude oil and/or petroleum products market and for the establishment of measures to protect the economy and the population during the crisis situation.

Based on this ordinance, a maximum price for gasoline and diesel could be imposed, a price to be updated monthly by Government decision. The ceiling proposed for now by the Ministry of Energy is 8.41 lei/liter for standard gasoline and 8.86 lei/liter for standard diesel.

The Ministry mentions “the possibility of granting a subsidy in the amount of 0.25 lei/liter including VAT, to economic operators who sell petrol and diesel to final customers – natural and legal persons, as well as to authorized economic operators who purchase fuels from warehouses and/or distribution stations for their own consumption or for resale and who grant a price reduction of 0.5 lei/litre, including VAT, on the selling price”.

Also based on the GEO, fuel exports could only be made with the approval of the Ministry of Energy.

It is proposed that these measures apply for a period of six months, with the possibility of extension for three months at a time.

Excise duty reduction only for two areas

The second measure of a fiscal nature is the granting of special aid for areas of the economy that essentially depend on the price of fuels.

The first is that of road transport: “It is proposed to amend Government Decision No. 1,094/2025 regarding the establishment of a state aid scheme to compensate for the increase in the excise duty on diesel fuel used as motor fuel, in the sense of extending the application of the scheme until December 31, 2026, increasing the aid amount to 1 leu/liter and applying a reduced level of the excise duty of 1,900 lei/1000 liters for diesel purchased between April 1 and December 31, 2026.”

The impact of increasing the aid amount per liter is estimated at 561,000,000 lei. Thus, they are trying to limit the costs on the logistics chain, which would lead to a direct impact on the prices in the economy.

The second area targeted is that of agriculture, for which the full exemption from the payment of excise duty on diesel fuel is proposed, which would have a greater impact on the budget. “At the excise duty level of 2.80 lei/liter, the full value of the excise duty exemption is estimated at 1,824,186,000 lei,” the document says.

The Lukoil refinery, an ace up the Government's sleeve

In addition to fiscal measures, the Ministry of Energy also mentions a temporary exemption from the obligation to add bioethanol to fuels. “It is proposed to temporarily reduce/eliminate, for the period March 1 – May 31, 2026, the BIO component in fuels (gasoline and diesel)”, claims the Ministry of Energy.

Finally, the restart of the Lukoil-Petrotel refinery in Ploiesti in April, which will refine oil from sources other than Russia, is also being taken into account. But the latter proposal is conditional on a prior assessment of “the legal, commercial, logistical and technical feasibility of this option.”

The shutdown of the refinery led to a 21% drop in the production of petroleum products, a drop that had to be compensated by imports.

The ministry mentions that the oil market in Romania is under “major pressure”, in terms of a high dependence on imports, of 9,000,000 tons per year, with domestic production reaching only 2,800,000 tons.

“Even if other oil producers could increase crude oil production to increase market supply, this cannot happen immediately,” the document signed by Minister Bogdan Ivan states.

Romania's emergency stocks are 2,000,000 tons, which can ensure domestic consumption for approximately 90 days.