Energy prices in Europe have gone crazy. It's expensive in Poland anyway, so the shock will be less

Poland will see a smaller increase in energy prices than Western Europe due to the conflict in the Middle East, Paweł Czyżak from the Ember think tank told PAP. According to the organization, gas prices in Europe have increased by almost 50 percent since the beginning of the war on February 28.

Czyżak, director of the European program at Ember, pointed out that the current disruptions caused by attacks by the US, Israeli and Iranian troops mainly concern oil and gas supplies. – In Poland, energy prices are most dependent on coal and are usually among the highest in Europe. (…) therefore, Poland will potentially experience a lower increase in electricity prices in the short term than some Western European countries – he said.

Ember, an independent energy and climate organization based in London, published a report on Friday on the shock to the European energy market due to military attacks in the Middle East. As reported, European gas prices averaged EUR 45/MWh in the first week of the conflict, i.e. in the period from March 2 to 6, which is an increase of almost 50%. compared to the pre-conflict level of 31 euro/MWh.

The immediate risk of gas supply shortages for Europe is low because direct gas imports from the Middle East are relatively small. About 10 percent EU imports of liquefied gas (LNG) come from Qatar, which corresponds to approximately 5%. all natural gas imports – we read in the document.

The organization noted that some European countries are more dependent on gas supplies from Qatar. These included Italy and Belgium, where 36% respectively. and 24 percent LNG imports in the first half of 2025 came from a Qatari source.

“In the first week of March, electricity prices rose to the highest levels in 2026 in Germany, the Netherlands, Italy and Belgium. Countries that are less dependent on gas, such as Spain, Portugal, France and the Nordic countries, appear to be less affected,” Ember reported.

Czyżak expressed concern that “Polish energy strategy in the long term focuses on gas expansion.” – This means that Poland will be increasingly exposed to gas supply shocks and will begin to experience the spikes in electricity prices observed in other European markets – he explained.

In the expert's opinion, “a wiser solution would be to follow the path of Spain or the UK, where renewable energy helps to decouple electricity prices from gas prices.” He predicts that taking such action “would make Poland more resilient to geopolitical disruptions while keeping average energy prices significantly lower than those currently set by coal.”

The think tank's report recalled that the bill for importing fossil fuels has increased in the European Union in recent years, among others. in connection with the energy crisis caused by Russia's initiation of a full-scale war in Ukraine. As calculated, it increased from EUR 313 billion in 2021 to EUR 693 billion in 2022, and then decreased to EUR 376 billion in 2024. “In total, the inflated prices caused by this crisis have added almost EUR 1 trillion to the costs of importing fossil fuels in the EU,” the publication reads.

Ember analysts estimated that the EU paid an additional €2.5 billion for fossil fuel imports in the first 10 days of the war in the Middle East.

The escalation of attacks by the US, Israeli and Iranian troops has caused significant disruptions in the global oil and gas supply market. As a result, the Strait of Hormuz was closed, through which 20% of the world's imports are transported annually. world supplies of these fuels. Along with Iranian attacks on neighboring countries, Qatar closed the Ras Laffan industrial complex, producing approximately 20 percent. liquefied gas (LNG) in the world.

Marta Zabłocka (PAP)

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