Important signal from the Monetary Policy Council. “Wait and see” comes into play

The “wait and see” approach will be used by the Monetary Policy Council for the next few months, and the NBP interest rates are currently at the right level even in the horizon of several quarters – says Wiesław Janczyk, MPC member, in response to questions sent by PAP Biznes.

“At its March meeting, the Council reduced the basic central bank rates by 25 basis points. I think the 'wait and see' position will be used for the next few months. We will analyze the incoming information on an ongoing basis. Rates are currently at the right level even in the horizon of several quartersand when lowering them at the last meeting, despite the known new circumstances, the Council took into account the fact that our economy is well diversified and has strong fundamentals. It should overcome the external impasse under the currently established monetary policy parameters. Today, it is difficult to responsibly estimate the scale of the impact of the conflict in the Persian Gulf on our economy and the economies in our region,” wrote Janczyk.

“I see a chance to maintain NBP rates at their current level in the near future despite very strong, unfavorable changes in the energy market. I hope that inflation, despite very turbulent circumstances, will remain on target in the coming months,” he added.

In March, for the first time in 2026, the Monetary Policy Council reduced the NBP rates by 25 basis points, to 3.75%. in the reference case. Earlier in 2025, the Council cut rates by 175 basis points, and in 2023 by 100 basis points, starting from the highest level in over 20 years of 6.75%.

In Janczyk's opinion the stable picture of the macroeconomic situation resulting from the March NBP projection is disturbed by the tension arising in connection with the intervention of the USA and Israel in Iranhaving a strong impact on the countries in the Persian Gulf region with consequences for the oil and gas market and some freight prices.

“The time scope and scale of the conflict is currently difficult to predict. The long period of systematic disinflation in the economy is being put to the test, and these circumstances force us to remind everyone that the world economy is a living organism with a strong influence on inflation processes,” he added.

The central projection path of the NBP assumes CPI in 2026 at 2.3% and in 2027 at 2.4%. and in 2028, 2.3 percent. GDP dynamics is expected to amount to 3.9% in 2026 and 2.9% in 2027-28. annually.

In Janczyk's opinion, the decline in consumer demand due to uncertainty may contribute to further disinflation in Poland. The economist also expects further deceleration in wages in the coming months, after the relatively low January reading of their dynamics of 6.1%.

“This will be facilitated by a much smaller increase in the minimum wage in 2026 and wages in the public sector, but also by the systematically rising unemployment rate for several months. We are in a zone of strong influence of the export of Chinese goods, which is growing very quickly, forcing the prices of industrial products to remain low,” he added.

On the other hand, Janczyk mentions a relatively high GDP growth in the projection assumptions, 3.9%. for 2026. Moreover, as the MPC member points out, there was a strong increase in the price of gas and oil on the energy market, and the capacity fee increased from January.

“It should be remembered that in 2028, the introduction of ETS II may already have a strong impact on price increases. At the same time, there is a high dynamics of geopolitical events. New tensions are emerging, changing conditions of trade and customs policy, and conditions of military threat are changing,” he adds.

Rafał Tuszyński (PAP Biznes)

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