At first glance, the presidents of Polish banks can sleep peacefully. For now, the war in the Middle East does not threaten any major revisions of economic growth forecasts (although the first slight downward reestimations appear), and this is a key factor for this industry.
The Polish economy is developing at a pace close to its potential, i.e. quickly, but at the same time without excessive price increases. The labor market – despite the cooling, visible mainly in the increase in the unemployment rate and the slowdown in wage dynamics, is still strong, so loans pay off well. Legal risks – although there is still a lot of talk about them – are no longer so scary, because write-offs for Swiss francs have been mostly eliminated, and the recent CJEU judgment in the WIBOR case has inspired optimism and increased bankers' hopes that loans based on this indicator will not be effectively challenged on a massive scale.
Since inflation is under control and will probably remain within the NBP's target in the medium term, interest rates in Poland will fall further. Although this phenomenon is unfavorable to banks' results and profitability, it also creates an opportunity to increase their core business – i.e. the loan portfolio.
Bankers are rubbing their hands. Finally, they are counting on a large increase in loans
The increase in lending is one of the main topics of the debate among bank presidents held at the end of this year's Banking Forum, which took place on February 24 and 25.
— Last year, loan growth in Poland reached 7%. and we believe that this positive trend will continue in 2026. This will be supported by high economic growth, the inflow of foreign direct investments and greater investments by Polish companies that expand abroad and international companies that invest in Poland. EU funds will also help, said Elżbieta Czetwertyńska, president of Citi Handlowy.
She added that interest rate cuts, both already made and expected this year, will also have a positive impact on the expected growth in lending. Some customers waiting for a lower cost of money may now decide to launch investments co-financed with a loan.
— In addition, there are large projects in the field of defense, infrastructure and energy transformation, where there will also be demand for loans from commercial banks. I think it will be a good year. All banks are trying to increase lending, so competition will be high, she added.
Foreign banks distort competition?
Analyzes by the Polish Bank Association show that the investment needs of the Polish economy are enormous, amounting to PLN 4 trillion by 2040. Most of these funds can be provided by banks.
Joao Bras Jorge, president of Bank Millennium, assessed that The potential for loan growth in Poland is very large, considering the low loan-to-GDP ratio in our country compared to other EU countries. He noted that he is optimistic about the recovery in the area of corporate loans, because banks have an appetite for growth and demand is starting to appear, although sometimes clients complain about banks' requirements regarding own contribution and collateral.
— So maybe we need to improve our risk appetite a bit, and the strong capital position of banks helps in this. We are close to starting the long-awaited wave of loan growth at a double-digit pace, which may last 3-5 years, he noted.
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Przemysław Gdański, president of Bank BNP Paribas, said that he had no doubts that the credit revival would come, but expressed concerns about how it would be distributed among individual financial institutions. In his opinion, the growth in loans will be generated by large companies and projects, so a large part of new loans will be generated by large banking groups. Also those that are absent in Poland and which, when posting a loan on their balance sheet abroad, do not pay bank tax on the Vistula River, which allows them to aggressively set priceswhich distorts competition, which – in his opinion – some banks in Poland may not be able to withstand.
— Therefore, there may be a situation where credit dynamics in the economy will be positive, but will not be reflected in banks in Poland – said the head of BNP Paribas Bank Polska.
State banks are favored?
This is not the only controversial point. Przemysław Gdański recalled the recent loan agreement worth PLN 3.3 billion, which Polish Airports signed with a consortium of banks: Pekao, PKO BP and Bank Gospodarstwa Krajowego. These are state-controlled institutions.
— As a representative of a commercial and private bank, I am concerned that large infrastructure or defense projects, in which the State Treasury is the main player, will be largely financed by the banks it controls. In addition, there is BGK, which does not pay banking tax – says the head of BNP Paribas Bank, suggesting that we may be dealing with not entirely equal and transparent competition.
Michał Gajewski, president of Erste Bank Polska (formerly Santander), did not share these concerns. — There was no crowd during the first Korean arms purchase contract. We won, we also won the third contract. If there are competences that we can offer to the public side, we can compete, he said, adding that in his opinion, state banks have no preferences.
— Another issue concerns the pricing policy. Those with a demanding private owner demand an appropriate return on capital and an appropriate loan price. If we see the first valuations that do not cover the cost of bank tax, these are things that a private owner will never agree to, he emphasized.
— It is impossible to administratively decree this or that transaction, said Szymon Midera, president of PKO BP. He added that they attract attention due to their large volume, but emphasized that the bank is growing at a double-digit rate in the corporate segment, and the fastest in the segment of smaller companies. — That's my answer to us giving each other something under the table. The rapid growth in smaller enterprises shows that we are doing normal, business-like, organic work, said the head of the largest Polish bank.
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— In the case of PPL, we participated in this project because we have appropriate competences and experience in financing such projects. This little over PLN 3 billion was an amount that three banks could handle, it did not require 10 institutions in the consortium – said Cezary Stypułkowski, president of Bank Pekao.
He added that he would not “demonize” the problem of favoring state banks in public tenders. He agreed that the structure of the bank tax is problematic and external financing is problematic (on the balance sheet of foreign banks) may be more attractive (the bank tax rate is 0.54% net, which in the case of Polish banks paying this levy puts them in a worse position in terms of price competition).
He suggested that in the case of some large foreign groups with banks in Poland (he pointed to Santander and BNP Paribas) large financings may have already been recorded on the balance sheet abroad (even though it was a Polish bank that worked on granting the loan and the transaction concerns our market).
Przemysław Gdański disagreed with the latter. — That's why we are here, so that what we have earned in Poland can be credited to a bank account in Poland. The challenge does not apply to banks that are heavily involved in our country, but to those that are not here or are in a format that allows you to prepare a transaction with us but book it, for example, in some beautiful Italian city – he replied.
He probably meant the case of UniCredit, a powerful European group based in Milan, but which is present in Poland on a very small scale (at least for now).
Challenges in technology, cybersecurity, law and demography
The presidents also touched on the issue of legal risk, which – as emphasized by Tadeusz Białek, president of the Polish Bank Association, who led the debate – in the Polish sector far exceeds credit risk. In this context, there was a call to implement a model agreement for housing loans, i.e. the largest and longest liabilities of individual customers.
When answering the question about the model housing loan agreement, the presidents indicated that: although this solution reduces legal risks, it is not a perfect tool and a final solution to all risksrelated to consumer-bank contracts. For now – as Szymon Midera said – there is no better solution and he assured that his banks are determined to implement a model mortgage agreement.
— We hope that other leading banks will do the same. This is a model contract that was not created in the banking sector. It was created with the strong participation of the Financial Ombudsman and the consumer community, it is written in simple language and is understandable to customers – said the head of PKO BP, recalling that the Financial Stability Committee supported this initiative.
Banks expect better cooperation with regulators. Joao Bras Jorge said that financial institutions can manage various types of risks, but they are not able to manage regulatory risk. – We need solutions, not discussions – said the president of Bank Millennium.
However, there were voices that clearly calling for a fixed interest rate was not necessarily a good solution, and in this respect there are various models in Europe. and there is no single right solution (e.g. southern European countries have mainly floating-rate mortgages).
Adam Marciniak, president of VeloBank, estimated that in the next three years the pressure on the investment budgets, especially of small and medium-sized companies in the area of new technologies, will be the greatest. He added that his bank will strive to help small businesses digitally transform to increase efficiency and profitability. He noted that banks themselves will also invest in AI tools to improve the efficiency and quality of customer service.
Bankers drew attention to the risks associated with fraud and unauthorized transactions. Adam Marciniak said that in his opinion, fraud using social engineering activities, also using artificial intelligence, is one of the main types of threats.
– The vector of attacks has changed, now they are targeted at weaker and less knowledgeable customers – said the president of VeloBank, adding that the obligation to return unauthorized payments within one business day may result in higher costs or a decline in the quality and availability of banking services for customers.
Bankers also mentioned demography, i.e. the aging society, among the threats. – If we added up the strategic goals of various banks, we would build a second banking sector, but there will be fewer customers – said Piotr Żabski, president of Alior Bank. — Migration, also internal, for work will increase. We will have to adapt to this, he added.
2026 will be a weaker year for banks
The economic situation remains good, but bank presidents expect the sector's profits to be lower this year. This will be influenced, among others, by: interest rate cuts already made in 2025 and upcoming in 2026, and an increase in the CIT rate for banks this year to 30%. In 2025, banks in Poland earned a record PLN 48.7 billion, almost 22 percent. more than a year earlier – according to NBP data.
– Profit due to low rates will drop by 18%, and due to (increased) CIT – by 13%, i.e. to approximately PLN 30 billion (…) It will be difficult to make up for this with greater lending and faster operation of the economy – concluded Elżbieta Czetwertyńska.
Author: Maciej Rudke, journalist of Business Insider Polska
