Israeli and Iranian sources explain how each camp defines its goals in the current conflict. Israel has in mind for Iran a “Romania 1989-type scenario”, when Ceaușescu was abandoned by a part of the army and the party and was overthrown by the people, writes the Greek daily To Vima.
Protests in Iran/PHOTO:X
Israeli and Iranian sources explain how each side sees the goals of the current war. While Israel hopes for a decisive weakening of Iran's nuclear capabilities and possibly a domestic political change, the prevailing belief in Tehran is that the United States and Israel are trying to cause chaos and dismemberment of the country. At the same time, Iranian officials claim that US President Donald Trump has “entered a quagmire” from which it will be difficult to get out.
ISRAEL
For Israel, the current conflict could become the decisive confrontation with Iran. “In April and October 2024, Iranian missile and drone attacks on Israel were extremely massive. In the 12-day war of June 2025 they were more reduced, and in the current conflict they are even less intense“, says an Israeli source familiar with government policy.
According to it, Israel would almost completely control the airspace of western Iran. “There is no timetable for the end of the war“, says the source.
After the confrontation last June, Iran would have tried to protect its strategic infrastructure even better. “Tehran has moved its nuclear and ballistic programs even deeper underground, into areas where neither American nor Israeli bombs can reach. For Israel, destroying these capabilities is an existential matter.”
Accordingly, Israel's main objectives would be to prevent Iran from hiding its nuclear program in inaccessible underground infrastructure and to keep the Strait of Hormuz open. Officially, regime change in Tehran is not a direct goal of the war.
However, Israel is trying to create the conditions for an internal uprising. “The goal is for the Iranian people to overthrow their leadership. We don't claim that we can do that,” the source said.
The major problem, however, is the lack of an organized opposition, capable of taking power immediately after a possible collapse of the regime.
That is why, in the analyzed scenarios, the Romanian model from 1989 frequently appears. “Ceaușescu was abandoned by a part of the army and the party, and the population overthrew him”, explains the source. In Iran, Israel would count on “a combination of popular uprising and ethnic minority uprisings.”
As for the expansion of the conflict, Israel expects the involvement of Hezbollah – which would have already launched “rather symbolic” attacks, according to the Israeli source, on the British bases in Cyprus – but also actions by the Houthi rebels.
IRAN
In Tehran, the leadership seems to be trying a slight tempering of speech. Iranian President Massoud Pezeshkian said Iran could end attacks on neighboring Arab states.
The main fear of the regime, however, remains the stimulation of ethnic minority revolts inside the country.
“The US president spoke by phone with Kurdish leaders in Iraq with the aim of armed or paramilitary groups entering Iran”says a source close to the Iranian regime. “The United States and Israel want people to take to the streets. But Iran has stayed together for so many years because of the patriotism of Iranians.”
The massive protests of last January inevitably appear in the discussion.
“Protests are not unusual in Iran. The difference is that it set the stage for today's US-Israeli intervention.”the source claims. “American and Israeli agents would have operated inside Iran and coordinated the protests. In some places, the demonstrators were even armed to shoot at the security forces.”
According to her, the plan would have been to start a civil war. “After the protests didn't bring down the regime, war ensued. The US and Israel want to dismantle Iran and throw the country into chaos. I think they can destroy a 5,000-year-old civilization.”
The Iranian source claims that the war will only end when Washington gives up. “Trump has stepped into a quagmire in Iran and will have to back down. Iran will not be defeated.”
However, Iranians inside the country say many citizens would accept giving up the nuclear program if it led to an end to the war and the lifting of sanctions.
The same sources describe an almost paralyzed capital. “The Americans and Israelis are hitting homes and residential neighborhoods. Tehran has emptied. Those who can go to their vacation homes on the Caspian Sea, where it's quiet because there are no military bases or factories to target.”
