The shelf impact of rising fuel prices: The state collects more, but the economy is gasping
Romania's economy is entering a more difficult period, marked by high inflation and very modest economic growth, warns Adrian Codirlașu, president of CFA Romania. According to him, the geopolitical conflict in the region will influence the economic outlook in two ways: by increasing inflation and by weakening consumption.
“We, at CFA Romania, estimate an inflation of 6-7%. The increase in fuel and gas prices will be partially transmitted to the price of electricity and will generate second-round effects in the economy,” Codirlașu told Agerpres.
At the same time, wages will not be able to keep up with inflation this year either, which will continue to erode the purchasing power of the population. This development could slow down consumption – the main engine of the Romanian economy in recent years.
Under these conditions, CFA Romania estimates an economic growth of only 0.5% in 2026significantly below the Government's official scenario.
Paradoxically, the state budget could benefit from the conflict in the Middle East, says the chief economist of the Concordia Confederation, Iulian Lolea. “The state owns energy companies from which it will collect higher dividends, and the excise duties – applied as a percentage – will generate increased revenues. Those who will suffer the most, instead, are the transporters, the chemical industry and the HoReCa sector”, he believes.
“Now that budget revenues have increased as a result of the tax increase, expenses should not be increased. If fiscal space is created, it should be used to reduce taxes,” adds Codirlașu.
He draws attention that the level of expenditure remains highboth in central and local public administration, and the reforms promised by the authorities have not yet been implemented.
The draft budget for 2026, published by the Ministry of Finance, is built on a deficit of 6.2% of GDP (127.7 billion lei)with an estimated discount to 5.1% of GDP in 2027. The government estimates for next year an economic growth of approx 1%with a GDP of 2,045 billion lei.
Rising oil prices bring back memories of the 2022 energy shock
For most people, the first reaction is to look towards the gas pump. But oil is much more than fuel for cars: it is one of the invisible ingredients of the modern economy, and its rise in price is gradually spreading through almost all sectors.
Usually, this propagation follows a fairly predictable order.
The first impact occurs in fuels and transport.
Gasoline and diesel prices are the fastest to react to international market developments. In a few weeks, the price of oil is reflected in the cost of the daily commute, in freight and sometimes even in the price of transport tickets.
The second link is logistics.
For transport companies, fuel is one of the most important costs. When it increases, logistics companies are forced to raise rates. And these additional costs are gradually transferred to the final price of products – from food to parcels delivered by online stores.
The third stage appears on supermarket shelves
The connection between oil and food may seem indirect, but it is strong. Fuel is essential for transporting agricultural products, for agricultural machinery, but also for processing and packaging. That is why increases in energy prices usually reach food prices with a delay of several months.
Finally, the pressure is seen in the materials and packaging industry.
Petroleum is the raw material for most plastics. From packaging to everyday items, production costs rise when oil rises, and the effect is passed down the chain to consumers.
In the economy, energy shocks rarely remain confined to the energy sector. More often than not, they slowly seep into the rest of the economic system. And when oil becomes more expensive, its effects inevitably reach from refineries and logistics chains to the consumer's wallet.
