Will NBP gold finance the rejection of the SAFE program? We calculated whether Poland would have enough zloty profits
For several years, the National Bank of Poland has been pursuing an intensive policy of increasing gold reserves, which, considering the historic record prices of this precious metal, generates huge, although largely “paper” profits. Poland already has over 550 tons of the ore, but how many paper profits does NBP have at the moment and will they be enough to not use the money under SAFE?
On Wednesday, at a joint conference of the President of the Republic of Poland, Karol Nawrocki, and the President of the National Bank of Poland, Adam Glapiński the idea of ”SAFE 0 percent” was announced. The head of the central bank mentioned, without providing details, that it may include, for example, about the NBP profit, which the central bank must transfer to the government.
However, in recent years, the NBP has only booked losses due to the strengthening of the Polish currency. One of
A potential way for the central bank to generate a significant profit would be to sell gold reserveswhich would allow unrealized valuation gains to be transformed into realized gains.
“Since references were made at the conference to gold purchases by the NBP, as well as to the possibility of transferring the NBP profit to the budget, one of the first hypotheses that comes to mind is an operation that would allow the realization/recognition of profit from the accumulated gold reserves. Under the currently applicable law, this could happen if the NBP decided to sell gold on the market,” experts from Santander Bank wrote in a commentary.
NBP has been purchasing gold for 8 years
According to the last published annual report of the National Bank of Poland, the value of gold assets at the end of 2024 increased by PLN 60.7 billion (64.9% y/y), which, apart from the price change, was influenced by purchase of 89.5 tons gold. NBP continued purchases also in 2025, purchasing just over 102 tons of gold and increasing the reserves to 550.2 tons, worth USD 88.67 billion (PLN 313.7 billion) as of the end of January.
It's worth knowing that NBP has built most of its current gold reserves in the last 8 years. Poland entered the 21st century with reserves of nearly 103 tons (about 3,310 million ounces), although in the mid-1990s the country's reserves contained only about 15 tons of gold.
In years 2018-2019 NBP gold resources were increased by 125.7 tons, which were the first gold purchases in the 21st century. In the years 2020-2022, marked by the pandemic and the outbreak of war in Ukraine, cosmetic changes were noted. In 2023, NBP purchased 130 tons of gold. In 2024 and 2025, it added the above-mentioned 89.5 tons and over 102 tons.
How to calculate the NBP's profit on gold in the 21st century?
How much could the National Bank of Poland earn if it recorded profits only on gold purchased in the 21st century? The matter is quite complicatedbut we will try to answer this question. Using historical NBP data, we know about monthly changes in reported gold reserves.
But we do not know when exactly during the month the NBP bought a batch of gold. In this case let's use the average gold price for the entire monthpublished by the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA). This simplification will bring us closer to the approximate price at which the NBP has usually purchased gold over the years.
Another caveat is omission of transaction costs, commissions, insurance, storage, transport, etc. This is a whole range of additional fees, which, compared to gold, are not small, but necessary to pay. Let us just remind you that each bar assigned to the NBP account is clearly identifiable, marked with a unique serial number and refiner's mark, and is closely guarded and insured, and this costs money. In our theoretical estimates, we only take into account gold and its price.
With all this in mind, we know that from 2018 to the end of 2025, Polish reserves increased by approximately 447 net tons. Taking into account the volume of monthly purchases and the average monthly gold price according to the LBMA, we estimate that the increase in net reserves cost nearly USD 34.1 billion.
The value of gold by which NBP reserves increased in the years 2018-2025, according to the LBMA price on March 4, is nearly USD 74.5 billion. In this way, the estimated potential profit of NBP is currently USD 40.4 billion. At the average dollar exchange rate from Wednesday, March 4, it is PLN 148.5 billion – this is the theoretical profit of the NBP from zloty investments in the 21st century, taking into account the reservations mentioned above and whether such an amount could be sold at such a price. The rate of return on the gold “investment” is 118.5%.
Estimated NBP profit for gold from the 20th century
The rate of return increases if the 103 tons acquired in the 20th century were taken into account. The largest purchases in this area were made in 1998, when as much as 74.5 tons of gold were purchased. At that time (1998), gold prices were between $250 and $300 per ounce. The profit from this lot of gold can be estimated in the range of USD 11.5-11.8 billion, i.e. another approximately PLN 43 billion. The remaining over 28 tons found in the NBP vaults in the 20th century this is a profit of approximately USD 4.4 billion (PLN 16.2 billion)but with the caveat that this is the least accurate estimate.
So all in all, profit, that is the increase in the value of purchased gold can be conservatively estimated at approximately PLN 205-208 billion. It seems that this is as much as Poland is supposed to receive from the EU SAFE (Security Action For Europe) program. The program amounts to EUR 43.7 billion, or almost PLN 200 billion, in the form of low-interest loans intended for investments in the defense industry.
Although the “SAFE 0%” project announced by President Karol Nawrocki and President Adam Glapiński suggests using the profits earned on gold, there's a key caveat to keep in mind: these billions are currently just paper profits.
To increase the state budget or finance new programs, The NBP would have to decide to sell the reserves. Such a move would transform the virtual valuation into real cash, but at the same time it would deprive Poland of its strategic “safety” in times of the greatest crises.
The decision to liquidate at least part of this treasure would be
an unprecedented turn in central bank policywhich so far
he consistently focused on the role of gold as the foundation for the stability of the national currency and economy. “The sale of part of the gold resources could bring profits, but such an operation would be highly dependent on market conditions and could raise concerns about the credibility and management of reserves,” Citi bank analysts pointed out in their report.
