“We know growth will slow — even if the new peace proves lasting.” IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said on Thursday. The IMF will publish a number of scenarios in its “World Economic Outlook” report next week. But even in the most optimistic of them, the institution will lower its growth forecasts, Georgieva said, quoted by Bloomberg.
The spring meeting of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank will be held next week in Washington.
The US-Iran truce does not change the IMF's decision
Before the US-Israeli attack on Iran began on February 28, the IMF planned to raise its global growth forecasts, Georgieva said.
The United States and Iran agreed to a truce this week that remains fragile. But damage to infrastructure and supply chains justify lowering economic forecasts, even in the most optimistic scenario, said IMF chief.
International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva delivers a speech at the IMF headquarters in Washington, U.S., April 9, 2026.
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PAP/EPA
The head of the IMF warns countries: do not add oil
In response to the supply shock that has sent oil prices soaring and food insecurity rising in many parts of the world, Georgieva urged policymakers to take a cautious approach. Many countries burdened with public debt cannot afford unconditional fiscal support.
“I appeal to all countries to reject actions of their own – export controls, price controls, etc. – that could further disrupt the global situation: do not add fuel to the fire.” she said.
In January, the IMF slightly raised its global economic growth forecast to 3.3%. this year, finding that economies have been exceptionally resilient in the face of trade and geopolitical tensions.
War in the Middle East. Three scenarios for the world
In its next “World Economic Outlook” report, scheduled for publication on Tuesday, the IMF will present three scenariosGeorgieva said: a relatively quick return to normality, an intermediate scenario and a scenario in which oil and gas prices remain significantly higher for a much longer period of time.
A sharp rise in oil prices has raised concerns about consumer prices, complicating the outlook for central banks around the world. The OECD predicts that inflation in the Group of 20 countries will average around 4% this year. , which is a significant increase compared to previous estimates.
The organization warns that further disruptions to Middle East exports could negatively impact economic growth and create instability in financial markets. “If inflation expectations threaten to break the anchor and trigger a costly inflation spiral, central banks should take decisive action by raising interest rates,” Georgieva said, adding that it was worth “waiting and watching” for now.
Source: Bloomberg
