The latest escalation in the Middle East, triggered by US and Israeli military action against Iran, creates long-term risks for Beijing but long-term opportunities, allowing it to once again leverage critical minerals against Washington, a Guardian analysis says.
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Although China has officially condemned the attacks, expanding the conflict could serve its geopolitical interests in the long term by straining US military resources and diverting Washington's attention from Asia, particularly Taiwan.
The US show of force in the Middle East could play to China's advantage, which would be in a position to once again play the dominance card in terms of critical minerals, especially in the field of defense, to the extent that they are needed for US weapons.
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi denounced the attacks as “unacceptable” and called for a ceasefire – language consistent with Beijing's broader stance on what it describes as an increasingly unpredictable US foreign policy under Donald Trump. Similar statements followed in the case of Washington's action against Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro.
China has consistently positioned itself as a defender of international sovereignty and stability. However, Beijing rarely provides substantial material support to smaller partners under pressure from Washington.
The oil shock: a manageable but real risk
China's most immediate vulnerability is related to the energy market. About 80 percent of Iran's exported oil would end up in China, accounting for about 13 percent of its maritime crude imports. Because of US sanctions, much of this oil is diverted through intermediaries such as Indonesia or Malaysia, making it difficult to accurately estimate volumes.
A disruption of Iranian supplies would affect China, but it would not be devastating. However, the moment is delicate. The US has recently consolidated control over Venezuela's oil sector – another source of cheap oil for China, albeit smaller in volume.
According to an analysis by Columbia University's Center for Global Energy Policy, more than 20 percent of China's oil imports in 2025 will come from states under sanctions, including Iran, Venezuela and Russia. Or two of these supply chains are now under pressure. Oil prices have already risen, with Brent crude hitting a 14-month high of $82 a barrel.
The price hike comes at a sensitive time for the Chinese economy. The rapid expansion of AI infrastructure and data centers has led to a sharp increase in energy demand. According to economist Alicia García-Herrero of Natixis, the period of oil significantly below the market price is in decline, complicating Beijing's long-term energy calculations.
“It doesn't come at a good time for China,” she said.
Strategic reserves and preventive measures
However, China was not passive. The $400 billion strategic deal signed with Iran in 2021 has only been partially implemented, limiting Beijing's financial exposure in the event of a regime change in Tehran. At the same time, China significantly increased its crude stockpiles last year.
Imports increased by 4.4%, and more than 80% of this increase would have been directed to the creation of reserves. This strategy, perhaps anticipating geopolitical shocks, gives China a buffer that could sustain supplies for several months, even in the event of disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz.
Paradoxically, some analysts believe that high oil prices could affect Washington more than Beijing. Trump faces domestic pressure to control inflation ahead of midterm elections, and energy prices remain a sensitive political issue.
A critical moment in military terms
The most important opportunity for Beijing may arise in the military-industrial area.
The offensive against Iran risks depleting the weapons stockpiles of the US and Israel. The Pentagon has already expressed concern about stockpile depletion in the past, temporarily suspending supplies to Ukraine. Recent reports indicate that the US has only about 25% of the Patriot systems needed for military planning.
However, the Middle East operation involves the deployment of advanced systems such as Patriot and THAAD, F-35 jets and other state-of-the-art equipment. All depend on semiconductors and radar systems that use gallium – a critical mineral whose production is dominated by China.
During the previous Sino-US trade conflict, Beijing restricted gallium exports, disrupting global supply chains and forcing Washington's hand in trade negotiations. With alternatives still in their infancy, American dependence remains significant.
A prolonged conflict would reduce the resources available for a potential Taiwan scenario and could give China an additional advantage by controlling raw materials critical to military stockpiling.
Some analysts believe that Trump's decision to open a new military front at a time when the US still depends on China for crucial raw materials for the defense industry will strengthen China's position in the upcoming Trump-Xi meeting in Beijing.
“Beijing will be pleased to see the US spend rare munitions and interceptors in a secondary theater. Reducing existing weapons stockpiles will not only diminish the resources available for a possible Taiwan emergency, but China's dominance of critical minerals could give it an advantage in the production of new weapons,” said Joseph Webster, senior fellow at the Atlantic Council think tank.
Matthew P Funaiole, senior research fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, notes that gallium is primarily used in sensors rather than consumable components of most munitions. “The long-term vulnerability is not in launching them, but in the ability to manufacture, upgrade and repair the broader ecosystem of gallium-based systems.”
Taiwan, still lower on the list of priorities
Perhaps the most important consequence for Beijing is the strategic distraction of the US. A prolonged conflict consumes military, political and logistical resources. For China, the fragmentation of American attention represents strategic advantages.
Although Washington claims it can manage multiple theaters of operations simultaneously, being involved in an unpredictable and extended conflict inevitably puts pressure on its capabilities, creating advantages rather than dangers for Beijing.
However, risks are looming for China. Some analysts believe that the removal of another leader of a strategic partner of China in just a few months will hurt China's attractiveness to countries in the Global South. In the past three years, Iran has joined the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and BRICS, two multilateral organizations led by China.
