Adam Glapiński on the effects of the conflict in Iran. Raw materials and inflation under the microscope
As Glapiński emphasized, currently One of the greatest threats to inflation may be the development of the geopolitical situation in this regionwhich is of key importance for global raw material markets.
“The greatest threat to inflation is, of course, the conflict in Iran. Currently, it is difficult to predict what the consequences of this conflict will be for the global and Polish economies,” Glapiński noted.
The President of the NBP pointed out that the tensions had already translated into significant changes on the energy raw material marketsprimarily oil and gas, but also other raw materials.
At the same time, he noted that today it is very difficult to determine both the scale and duration of potential turbulencemaking it difficult to incorporate this scenario into current macroeconomic forecasts.
“Today it is difficult to say how long it will take,” he said.
More expensive raw materials. Adam Glapiński draws up scenarios
As Glapiński pointed out, more expensive oil and gas represent an external supply shock.
“The increase in oil and gas prices is an external supply shock. On the one hand, if it is persistent, it will increase prices. On the other hand, it will have a negative impact on the economic situation and GDP growth, i.e. it will have an anti-inflation effect,” Glapiński said.
For this reason – as emphasized by the President of the NBP – At this stage, it is difficult to clearly assess the balance of effects of such a scenario on inflation.
“Currently, it is difficult to predict what the consequences of this conflict will be for the global and Polish economies, which is why we do not take them into account” – added Adam Glapiński
As a result, the National Bank of Poland monitors the development of the geopolitical situation, However, for now it treats the potential escalation of the conflict mainly as an external risk factorwhich may in the future affect both inflation and the rate of economic growth in Poland.
