The war in Iran could escalate and could become a regional one, is the opinion of the experts questioned by “The Truth”. Moreover, there is also the major risk that the war between the US and Iran will eventually become a global one.
Iran and Israel also hit each other a few months ago. PHOTO: Profimedia
The United States and Israel attacked Iran, and Tehran responded with targeted strikes on American military bases in the region. Among some international analysts, there is a fear that once Iran has hit targets in Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates, whether they are also American military bases, the risk of the war escalating, and in the first phase some of the respective states will also be involved, is increasing. Then, if it got here, there is a risk that other countries, including some thousands of kilometers away, would go to war on one side or the other. A new world conflagration would result, anyone's nightmare, but a scenario that enough analysts and experts in international relations would not rule out from the start.
“Adevărul” discussed this topic with Ioana Mateș, expert in international relations and lawyer in international law, but also with General (r) Dan Grecu, president of the Romanian Reserve Officers Association and well-known military analyst.
Ioana Mateș is an expert in international relations and spent a good period in Iran, a country where she represented the interests of important Romanian companies. She is familiar with what Iranian foreign policy means and how the Iranian authorities act, and she understands very well the reaction of Tehran.
How the war in Iran can escalate
Ioana Mateș puts her finger on the wound from the start. The risk of this military conflict becoming international is real and cannot be neglected.
“It's not far-fetched to think that this war can escalate and that it can even go beyond the stage of a regional conflict. There is certainly a risk of igniting the entire Middle East, there is the potential for something even worse.”warns the expert.
Ioana Mateș recalls the fact that there are huge tensions in the area, beyond those that led to the military confrontations between the United States of America and Iran. One such conflict is the ongoing one, but which is little or not at all talked about in Romania, between Pakistan and Afghanistan.
“Let's not forget the conflict between Pakistan and Afghanistan, but also the one between Pakistan and India. All things can flare up against a background where alliances could become very volatile. And so other countries can go to war or support one side or the other, further inflaming the situation.”explains Ioana Mateș.
All eyes on China and Russia
Even if Iran's traditional allies, China and Russia, are watching passively for now, it is not a certainty that they will limit themselves to the position of observers in the future.
“I don't think that at this point, for example, China will stand by and watch the invasion of a state where it has strong economic and other interests. It does not mean that it will automatically go to war, but it is possible that it will support Iran in other ways. And we do not know exactly how Russia will act. So the risks are there, they are real, they cannot be neglected“, says the expert.
Ioana Mateș is of the opinion that the Americans will not have an easy war and that the situation is much different from the one in Venezuela, even if the United States apparently beheaded the leadership of Iran. There is a completely unacceptable scenario for America, in which the traditional allies of Iran, including groups such as Hezbollah, Hamas or the Houthi rebels in Yemen will attack targets located on the territory of the United States of America, but also American objectives and interests around the world.
The scenario that gives Americans chills
“In fact, the only scenario that, from my perspective, Americans fear would be a proxy war. That would mean hitting targeted American interests anywhere in the world. And from my perspective, Iran has the ability to do that.” emphasizes Ioana Mateș.
General (r) Dan Grecu is president of the Romanian Reserve Officers Association. He has been in combat theaters in Afghanistan, Iraq, Eritrea and Ethiopia and has been decorated by the United States, the United Nations and NATO in turn. Doctor in military sciences and intelligence and fine military analyst, General Dan Grecu draws attention that the risks are major and that a simple spark can ignite the entire Middle East. From here, the war can spread to other meridians and engulf an entire world before it is stopped.
Regionalization of the conflict, possible
“There is a great danger of things escalating in that region, in the Middle East. So, on the one hand through the regionalization of the conflict, on the other hand due to the reaction of the movements that, as a rule, were supported by the Ayatollah's regime. Because, it is known, Iran acts and relies a lot on proxies, Islamic groups in the area, who are waiting for a signal to attack Israel, but also other countries. This is a big risk in the region, let's see how the days will unfold next and how this war will be managed by the Americans, but the risks are there, for sure,” says General Dan Grecu.
Romania will certainly be affected, at least economically, just as it is expected to happen to the entire European Union. Blocking the Strait of Hormuz will make oil and liquefied gas producing countries' exports suffer, and that means even more expensive energy than today. This in the context where in the European Union energy prices are 2-3 times higher than in the United States and up to four times compared to China.
“First of all, there will be the economic effects, which we are already feeling. We see them, unfortunately, especially since the war has not even started well and diesel and gasoline have become more expensive. There will be possible problems with the transit of oil products through the area and it depends on how the great powers will continue to play. And here I mean, on the one hand, the United States, on the other hand, China and Russia, who, as you have seen, condemned the actions of the Americans. It is still too early. For now, only some of the leaders have disappeared, but step two is unclear what comes next”, concludes General Dan Grecu.
How the war evolves
From the first day of the war, the United States of America and Israel scored seriously. First, Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei met his end after Israel allegedly dropped 30 bombs on his fortified compound. His death shook the Islamic Republic to its foundations and caused a real political and religious earthquake.
Soon after, the public broadcaster included the name of Abdolrahim Mousavi on the list of high-ranking officials killed in the attacks on Saturday, February 28, thus confirming one of the worst losses suffered by the Iranian military leadership in decades.
Other important Iranian generals and gunmen have also lost their lives since the initial attacks. According to the same source, General Mousavi died along with other important leaders of the military and security apparatus of the Islamic Republic. Among them are the Minister of Defense, the commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Mohammad Pakpour, as well as Ali Shamkhani, a close adviser to the supreme leader.
In response, Iran struck several US military bases in nearby countries. US bases in Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates were attacked.
