According to experts interviewed by The Independent, both Russia and Ukraine currently have sufficient resources and external support to maintain the status quo. This creates an impasse that, according to experts, cannot be resolved through negotiations. — Any statements about “peace just around the corner,” especially from Trump's envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, are cynical declarations or wishful thinking, says Scott Lucas, a professor of international politics at University College Dublin.
What are two possible ways to change the impasse in Ukraine?
Why is it unlikely that the invasion will end with negotiations?
Who should increase arms supplies to Ukraine?
How can China influence the situation in Ukraine?
Two solutions to the war in Ukraine
The expert does not see any possibility of change in the near future. In his opinion, a negotiated end to the invasion is almost impossible due to the Kremlin's desire to “victory” through the capitulation of Kiev. Such a capitulation, however, is unlikely.
Mark Webber, professor of international politics at the University of Birmingham, claims that Russia's war methods in Ukraine, although predictable, have led to a stalemate and a frozen front line. “There are two things that can change this,” says Webber. The first solution he mentions is a change in the approach of China, which has so far effectively subsidized the Russian war machine.
— Beijing could cut off some of the technology it provides to Russia and put pressure on Moscow to encourage flexibility in peace negotiations, says Mark Webber in The Independent. — The second possible factor of change is a massive military effort in favor of Ukraine. This would require Germany, France and Great Britain to increase their already significant supplies of weapons and allow their use without restrictions due to fear of escalation, the expert suggests.
As he adds, both solutions are unlikely at the moment. China's alliance with Russia is currently unbreakable because it is a way to balance the global domination of the US. In turn, the three European countries mentioned “do not have an internal political imperative to support Ukraine in victory.”
