Can the attrition stage of the war in Ukraine be overcome? Predictions for developments on the front in 2026
On the eve of the fourth anniversary of the Russian invasion, President Volodymyr Zelensky said it was “only a matter of time” before Ukraine regains all its lost territory. However, for months the war was extremely close, along a 1,200 km front, with progress being slowed by the evolution of tactics and technology, an analysis by The Independent found.
PHOTO EPA-EFE
Diplomatic efforts mirror the stalemate on the battlefield. While the fourth round of direct talks between Kiev and Moscow is expected to take place this week, both sides remain firm: Russia continues to insist on maximalist territorial demands, while Ukraine says it will not cede its eastern provinces to the aggressor country.
Despite the general stalemate, Ukraine recorded symbolic victories in the south. In February, Kiev announced it had recaptured 400 square kilometers of territory, including eight settlements, up from 300 km² gained last week and countering Russia's reported gains of 389 km² in January.
But experts warn that most of these gains are in the southeast, far from the strategically important eastern front. Emil Kastehelmi, a military analyst and co-founder of the Finnish open-source intelligence group Black Bird, told The Independent that neither side appears ready to break the stalemate in the most contested areas of the front.
How the front line has changed
“Today's front line is no longer a coherent line with clear control,” explained Kastehelmi. “Drones have made positions more diffuse, and troops are often interspersed in certain areas.”
Modern warfare has “de-mechanized” the battlefield previously marked by long-distance advances, reducing the effectiveness of tanks and forcing Russia to rely on infantry attrition tactics. Drone strikes now account for up to 80% of Russian casualties, up from less than 10% in 2022. In 2025, Russia is estimated to have lost 80,000 soldiers to capture just over 4,800 km² – 0.8% of Ukraine's territory.
Analysts do not expect this situation to change for the time being. Mobile drone-hunting teams have become routine, and much of the war has turned into an “air battle of mutual denial,” according to a report by the French Institute of International Relations published this month. But any kind of advance still depends heavily on infantry.
Ukrainian forces recognize the reality of these challenges. Valentin Bohdanov, a tank platoon commander in the 127th Heavy Mechanized Brigade in Kharkiv, told Reuters that the drones had rendered the tanks largely useless. His T-72 tank, captured from Russian forces, remains hidden under camouflage near the snow-covered front in the northeast, basically functioning as static artillery. Under these conditions, long-range artillery could be a really effective substitute, he says.
Can either side break the deadlock?
Analysts predict slow progress in 2026. “Russia will probably continue to make incremental gains month after month,” Kastehelmi estimated, noting that Moscow's strategy is to rely on war of attrition to weaken Ukrainian forces. Ukraine is facing staff shortages and defections, but even under these conditions experts do not anticipate dramatic changes to the front lines this year.
“Last year, the Russians managed to advance about 400-500 square km per month. It's not very much… This shows that the Russians have not yet found a solution to counter the current problems on the battlefield.”
Dr Jack Watling, senior research fellow for land warfare at the Royal United Services Institute, explained that the Ukrainians should apply the lessons of operations in the south to carry out successful counter-attacks on the wider front.
“Over the past year, Russia's gains have been made possible by the increasing lethality of Russian attacks and the shrinking of Ukrainian military forces, which has allowed Russia to persistently infiltrate and thus undermine Ukrainian defensive positions,” he said.
“During 2025, however, some of Ukraine's best units found ways to conduct offensive operations under modern conditions. This allowed for successful counterattacks in Kupiansk and in the south. The question for Kiev is whether the tactics of these units can be widely extended along the front.”
As for the coming months, “improving Ukraine's training process is key to strengthening front-line units so that Russia can no longer exploit infiltration tactics when the vegetation returns in the spring,” he said.
Military analyst Rob Lee of the Foreign Policy Research Institute added that while tanks are currently marginalized, future technological advances could restore maneuverability and change the dynamics of the battlefield again.
Economic and diplomatic pressures
Russia's ability to maintain military pressure is increasingly dependent on the economy. Economic growth was only 1% in 2025 and the budget deficit is growing; In addition, Russia is increasingly relying on foreign troops. At the same time, the European Union is struggling to maintain a united front, failing to impose a 20th round of sanctions before the fourth war commemoration, largely due to opposition from Hungarian leader Viktor Orban.
Watling pointed out that Russia can continue the war for now, but dwindling troop reserves and rising debt make it vulnerable to shocks. “The question is whether Europe is ready to apply the necessary pressure,” he said.
As the conflict enters its fifth year, Ukraine is celebrating local victories, but the wider struggle in the hotly contested territories remains uncertain.
