After some temporary turmoil, gold has returned to form in recent days, although it is still some way away from historic records. These were reached on January 29 this year, when gold reached $5,626. per ounce. On Thursday, the price on futures contracts was as high as $5,040 for a while.
The Polish gold craze continued. And we're not just talking about the National Bank of Poland, which is behind a significant part of the demand from global central banks in 2025. Purchases by individuals also reached record levels.
Read also: No one in the world buys as much gold as the National Bank of Poland. The Polish central bank is a record holder
The financial data of the Mint of Poland after the third quarter of 2025 showed significant increases in investment gold stocks caused by revived demand. In turn, Mennica Skarbowa, the largest supplier of tangible investment gold in the form of bullion bars and coins, repeatedly boasted last year more records.
A few months ago, the company reported that after the drone raid on Poland, the demand for bars increased significantly and sales in September were record-breaking. The climate of fear is definitely driving demand. But it also shows the reason why we buy gold. And this, in turn, influences the choice of saving method.
Poles are collecting gold for hard times
Why exactly do we buy physical gold? Information from the Mint of Treasury about increased, record demand after the drone strike indicates that the atmosphere of fear is fueling purchases. In other words, Poles invest in gold not only for investment purposes, but also in the event of… an armed conflict. At such moments, paper loses value and something specific, such as gold or silver, gains it.
From an investment point of view, gold is quite impractical. Yes, we have them, we can touch them, but in order to sell them, we have to agree to a fairly high commission from currency exchange offices. The so-called spread, i.e. the difference between the purchase and sale prices depending on the size of the exchange office network, ranges from 3%. up to 12 percent The smaller the bar, the higher the spread. This year, gold prices have increased by 14%. in USD, so the spread would eat up a significant part of our profit. And there is also the cost of purchasing a safe and… the mental cost of fear that someone will break in and force us to provide the code to the safe.
Read also: For whom is gold a good investment? Profit and loss analysis
In the world it is usually done completely differently. Yes, there is high demand for material gold in the form of jewelry, for example, in India and China. In the latter, it is particularly visible in the current period of the Lunar New Year. But there is a much simpler way to invest in gold and this is the dominant way in developed countries. These are investment funds, specifically ETFs. Poles are just getting used to this method.
Gold ETF, i.e. ETC
ETF, i.e. Exchange Traded Fund, are investment funds available for trading on stock exchanges that reduce investment management costs to a minimum. A given ETF may be, for example, only for gold. Then it is called ETC (Exchange Traded Commodity, i.e. a raw material available for exchange trading).
The fund states how much gold it has and how it secured it, or how much is equivalent to a given amount of gold, how much management fee it charges (usually only about 0.5% of the asset value) and… that's all we need to be interested in. We buy a kind of share in the gold pile with a storage fee. And we can easily convert our share into PLN if necessary.
ETC is traded as if trading gold. Most ETCs even have material security in gold – according to the World Gold Council, there are 126 such funds in the world. But physical security is not necessary. From a fund's perspective, this can be solved by buying leveraged gold futures or options, keeping the rest in bonds and cash. This can have the same effect as keeping physical gold in a vault, and is even cheaper. Well, the information that gold exists and is lying somewhere looks better for the investor.
Read also: Gold under pressure from low liquidity. There is a big drop
If there are a lot of new people willing to join a given ETC, this can be solved by further issues of participation units and the purchase of additional gold. Investors can trade gold in the form of ETCs on the exchange where commissions are much lower than those of currency exchange offices. The WSE wants to develop this market and does not charge any commission for now, so brokerage houses do not charge high fees either. They are usually in the order of 0.2%. on turnover, but e.g. BM Pekao demands only 0.1 percent.
Well, the investment process requires much less effort from us. Provided that we cannot touch this gold, so we will not be able to use it during the war. But this is information for those who assume that it will explode. The rest can focus on the advantages of this solution.
The turnover on the “Polish” ETC is increasing
The first gold ETC debuted on the Warsaw Stock Exchange in 2023, and the issuer was HANetf ETC Securities plc, a British company. The value of a single ETC corresponds to 1/100 of the value of an ounce of spot gold quoted on the LME (London Metal Exchange). The material gold on which this instrument is solely based is held and guarded in the vaults of the British Royal Mint in Llantrisant, Wales, and audited by an independent auditor.
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Since its debut, this ETC is still the only gold fund listed on the WSE. To the Warsaw Stock Exchange over 45 million instruments were introduced for 450,000 ounces of gold with a current value of $2.3 billion. Quotations take place on a continuous basis. But the statistics, although growing dynamically, are not yet impressive.
In January this year there were only 5.7 thousand on this ETC. transactions on the WSE worth PLN 27.5 million. There were 160,000 in circulation. instruments. Comparing year to year, the increase is clear, as the number of transactions increased by 545%. volume increased by 482 percent, and the turnover value by 806 percent. However, these amounts are a small fraction of what is happening with gold ETFs around the world.
There are no Polish ETFs in global rankings
The World Gold Council recently released January statistics for the 126 largest gold ETF funds in the world and this ETC addressed to Poles is not among them. Total these funds at the end of January they had 4,145 tons or 133 million 251 thousand 439 ounces at present worth USD 667 billion. For comparison, the NBP treasury holds 550 tons, and plans call for an increase to 700 tons.
The above data shows that this one “Polish” ETC is only 0.3 percent. market. And the list includes countries that we have already overtaken in economic development: Malaysia and South Africa.
The conversion provided by the World Gold Council shows that at the end of January Americans had the most gold ETFsspecifically 2,060 tons, or 66 million ounces with a current value of USD 331 billion. In second place were the British with 632 tons, or 20.3 million ounces worth $102 billion, in third place – the Swiss with 368 tons, or 11.8 million ounces worth $59 billion, and in fourth place – Germany with 325 tons, or 10.4 million ounces worth $52 billion.
Is gold too expensive for jewelry?
Investing in physical gold to secure capital is the basic method of such investments for Poles. Due to modernity, we have the option of ordering and paying online, but then the traditional method remains, i.e. put the bar in the safe, and if we want to sell it, go to a currency exchange office. Rapid price increase to levels above PLN 5,000. hole. per ounce, however, caused anxiety among such investors.
— The high price causes some investors to suspend purchasesand the market is starting to become saturated – said Adam Stroniawski, managing director of sales at Mennica Skarbowa, at the end of January.
This is not just an impression from the Polish market. Jewelry buyers in India are reacting similarly.
“The demand for jewelery has not rebounded even though jewelers are offering discounts on production costs. Retail customers don't feel comfortable shopping at current prices” – a jeweler from Hyderabad told a Reuters reporter in mid-February.
The dynamic growth raises legitimate doubts about how long it can last, and the market reaction shows that it worries investors in physical gold more than those who trade electronically. On Thursday, February 19, gold returned to prices above 5,000 after a short break. dollars, and technical indicators indicate that the situation has calmed down with slight buy signals on moving averages.
Forecasts have recently become less optimistic. The median forecast collected by Reuters puts the average annual price at $4,746. per ounce at the end of the yeari.e. below current levels. JP Morgan analysts were the most optimistic, but according to them, gold will only reach $5,055 at the end of the year, so to break the historical record above 5.6 thousand. hole. It's better not to get too excited. But the most pessimistic analysts do not talk about significant declines. Those from Deutsche Bank set the base variant at $4,450.
Author: Jacek Frączyk, editor of Business Insider Polska
