The de-escalation of tensions favors the return of the indices to the peaks. And we don't know what's next

Given the relatively empty economic calendar, unless there is more important news in the field of geopolitics, it will be difficult to see a clearer return of American indices today, which are consolidating close to historical maximums – experts from the BNP Paribas Bank Brokerage Office indicate in their comments.

World stock exchanges slightly up. Solid WIG20

Wednesday's correction was not continued during Thursday's trading, and global shares were supported by reports of de-escalation of tensions between the US and Iran. The main indices ended the day with moderate increases, so the direction of quotations for the coming days is still unclear – the indices are consolidating near their peaks.

The above was reflected in the WIG20 quotations, which ended the day above the level of 3,000 points, while the percentage increase remained solid (>1.0%). CD Projekt's quotations led the way, gaining over 8%. KGHM and PKN Orlen also continued to perform well. Mixed moods prevailed in the second and third lines, as the mid-cap index lost 0.12%, while sWIG80 gained 0.24%.

The zloty is stable after the conference of the head of the NBP

The expected speech by President Glapiński after yesterday's meeting did not bring a breakthrough. The President of the NBP began by announcing an increase in gold reserves to 700 tons (currently a nearly 30% share in the NBP reserves). In his opinion, inflation dropped to 2.4% and should remain within the NBP target throughout 2026 (2.5% ± 1 percentage point), which provides a comfortable situation for the Monetary Policy Council, which maintained the reference rate at 4%, switching to wait-and-see mode. There is still a small space for further reductions (Glapiński personally currently sees a target of 3.5%, previously closer to 4.0%), but decisions will be cautious and dependent on incoming data. In the opinion of the President of the National Bank of Poland, the main risks remain energy prices and geopolitics.

The zloty did not react significantly to the above and continued the modest weakening that started in mid-December. The final reading of December's inflation dynamics, which confirmed the level from the flash publication (2.4% y/y), had no major impact on domestic assets. We note that the yields on 10-year treasury bonds have reached 5.10%, the lowest levels since the beginning of 2024.

It may be difficult for the indices to move more

Today the macroeconomic calendar promises to be a bit calmer. Even before the session, we will know the final reading of inflation dynamics in Germany for December. In the afternoon we will know the core inflation for Poland, and later in the afternoon the December readings from the American industry will arrive.

Today there is also a break in the publication of results for the past quarter for the largest companies from overseas. Therefore, it seems that unless more important news in the field of geopolitics appears, it will be difficult to see a clearer return in the American indices, which are consolidating near historical highs (ATH).

Adam Angel, BNP Paribas Bank Brokerage House

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