This gap in Europe's system is very disturbing. And it will take years to complete it. Experts say there is a serious risk

Ashley Davis13/02/2026

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Conversations with diplomats and analysts show why.

The European arms industry can produce rifles, fighters, tanks and missiles. However, it still relies heavily on the Pentagon for intelligence, transportation, communications and command systems – the “backbone” that ties all activities together into one well-functioning whole.

Defense Commissioner Andrius Kubilius said this week that Europe must be ready to replace American “strategic support” with its own solutions. He called it “the first step towards our independence” and indicated it as a strategic priority.

However, cutting off from the USA would be a long-term and very expensive process.

By definition, no European country can replace the United States

– said Olivier Schmitt from the Royal Danish Defense College.

The European Union is aware of these shortcomings. It adopted the Strategic Compass document and the Readiness 2030 plan, which are intended to limit the risk resulting from a possible US withdrawal from Europe. The problem is that these are projects planned for years.

As diplomats and analysts emphasize, the biggest obstacle is not only money or technology, but politics.

EU defense policy is often bogged down by the requirement of unanimity, which gives veto power to pro-Russian Hungary. Even when EU countries organize in smaller coalitions, they must later synchronize their actions with non-EU countries – such as Norway, Great Britain and, increasingly, Canada.

Completely “divorcing” the US would be astronomically expensive. Mark Rutte estimates that the cost would reach up to 10%. GDP is twice as much as the current commitments of NATO countries in terms of defense spending.

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte during a meeting of NATO defense ministers at the headquarters of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization in Brussels, Belgium, February 12, 2026.PAP/EPA/OLIVIER MATTHYS / POOL / PAP

According to the International Institute for Strategic Studies, the bill could reach $1 trillion. (approx. PLN 4 trillion). And not only to replace American equipment and personnel, but also to rebuild NATO's space and intelligence capabilities and command systems.

However, Europe is not starting from scratch

As Camille Grand emphasizes, in the vast majority of cases there is already a European alternative.

In 98 percent cases, we have a European solution

– claims.

Surveillance and reconnaissance

The American Boeing E-3 Sentry (AWACS) has been the backbone of NATO's early warning and command systems for decades. However, the Alliance is looking for his successor.

E-3 SentryWilliam R. Lewis / Public Domain / US Air Force

Initially, it was planned to purchase the American E-7A Wedgetail. However, Germany and several allies want to return to talks and consider a European alternative.

One of the candidates is Swedish Saab GlobalEye. Sweden is already buying it, France has ordered two copies, and German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius indicated that the machine is currently the favorite for purchase by the Bundeswehr.

Air defense

The MIM-104 Patriot system produced by Raytheon is used by the USA and 19 European countries, including Ukraine. That means dependence on U.S. supplies — and Ukraine has already complained about shortages of PAC-3 missiles, which disabled systems during Russian attacks this winter.

German Patriot systemAFP/East News

An alternative is the French-Italian SAMP-T with comparable capabilities, although with less combat experience. Ukraine is already using it and expects another eight sets. Last year, Denmark chose SAMP-T instead of Patriot.

Air Force and Transport

The American army has over 200 C-17 Globemaster III transport aircraft and an even larger number of C-130 Hercules. Europeans have the newer Airbus A400M Atlas – Germany uses about 50 machines, Great Britain and France about 20 each, and more are in production.

Airbus A400M Atlasdefenseimagery.mod.uk

In the event of a defensive war with Russia, however, roads and railways, rather than air transport, may be crucial. The European Commission has proposed increasing the budget for military mobility tenfold – to EUR 17 billion 700 million (approx. PLN 76 billion) in the next budget.

The US has the biggest advantage in air refueling – it has approximately 450 flying tankers, while Europe has 156 of them, mainly Airbus A330 MRTTs.

Already during the NATO campaign over Libya in 2011, European countries were dependent on US support in many areas.

Space and intelligence – the hardest to replace

European military capabilities in space are limited. Many countries still rely on the US for navigation and intelligence. Although increased spending on the space sector has been announced, the effects will only be visible in a few years.

Europe has a new Ariane 6 rocket, but its launch capabilities are still far behind America's.

The EU is financing the IRIS² satellite communications system, which is intended to compete with Elon Musk's Starlink, but it is not expected to come into use until around 2030 – after delays and cost increases.

However, the most difficult thing to replace is American intelligence capabilities.

As Max Bergmann from CSIS emphasizes, it is not only about the satellites or drones themselves, but about the ability to combine data in real time and transform it into specific goals.

Ukraine still relies heavily on US intelligence. When the Trump administration temporarily halted their transfers last year, Kiev and European allies rushed to look for alternatives.

President Emmanuel Macron said France currently provides about two-thirds of intelligence support to Ukraine.

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The problem is politics

When the US was seen as a solid and predictable pillar of NATO, these shortcomings did not seem so pressing. Today, however, doubts are growing.

Recent polls show a clear decline in trust in the United States as a reliable security partner — especially in France, Germany and the United Kingdom.

To truly stand on its own two feet, Europe would need to: