The end of an era. “We are at a historic turning point”
In the late 1960s and early 1970s, American and Soviet negotiators met in Helsinki and Vienna for a series of arms control talks. They led to a breakthrough. For more than half a century, the treaties concluded during these conferences—and those concluded in their wake—largely prevented the unrestricted buildup of nuclear weapons by the United States and Russia.
Until now. The last of these treaties, New START, expired on Thursday, ushering in an era of nuclear uncertainty not seen since the Cold War. Donald Trump says he wants to reach a more far-reaching agreement that would include both China and Russia. But experts say this is unwise and could further increase the risk of a nuclear arms race between Washington, Moscow and Beijing.
— We are at a historic turning point and I think it's a huge failure that the two largest nuclear-weapon states are not living up to some of their fundamental obligations, says Daryl Kimball, executive director of the Arms Control Association.
The biggest wrestling in the world
The New START (New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty), i.e. the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty, contains general provisions limiting the number of deployed nuclear warheads to 1,550 and their deployment systems to 800. According to it, stocks of undeployed intercontinental and submarine-launched ballistic missiles are not limited, but may be controlled by either party.
The expiration of the treaty leaves the United States and Russia, the world's two largest nuclear powers, without any concrete agreement on the size of their arsenals and the number of nuclear weapons they can deploy.
According to data from the Federation of American Scientists, Russia has 5,459 nuclear warheads and the United States 5,177. In total, this is approximately 90 percent. all nuclear weapons in the world.
Barack Obama and Dmitry Medvedev signing the New START treaty, Prague, April 8, 2010.Kremlin.ru / Wikimedia Commons
Signed in 2010 by Barack Obama and Dmitry Medvedev, the New START treaty was the latest in a long series of bilateral agreements aimed at limiting the destructive potential of these stockpiles.
Like previous agreements, New START was a temporary measure – it was supposed to last for 10 years. The treaty's provisions allowed it to be extended once every five years, which former US President Joe Biden did in 2021. Any subsequent arms deal would have to take the form of a new agreement or voluntary, self-imposed restrictions.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has dealt a blow to the arms control agreementwhich many considered fatal, suspending Russia's participation in this treaty in 2023, but not withdrawing from it. He justified his decision with the West's military support for Ukraine.
Putin's proposal
Even months before the contract expired, experts were sounding the alarm. Putin and Trump, however, seemed unfazed that the agreement would soon expire and there would be no regulation of their nuclear stockpiles.
In September, Putin offered to voluntarily continue to comply with the terms of the agreement if the United States did the same. Experts told The Moscow Times at the time that the proposal was an “easy solution” — something that benefits both sides and should be easy to agree on.
Trump also said the offer sounded “like a good idea.” However, he never took any official action on this matter. In an interview with The New York Times in January, he seemed unconcerned about the approaching end of the treaty.
– If it expires, it expires. We will reach a better agreement, he said.
Instead of a bilateral deal with Russia, the US president has expressed support for a broader agreement involving China, the world's third-largest nuclear power and — according to many in Washington — the United States' main geopolitical rival.
A Trump administration representative told The Moscow Times and other media that the US president remains interested in limiting nuclear stockpiles but would like to involve China in the talks.
However, this is easier said than done. Experts say allowing the provisions of the New START treaty to expire in the hope of reaching a better agreement is irresponsible, given the destructive potential of a new nuclear arms race.
Pavel Podvig, director of the Russian Nuclear Forces Project, says there is no reason why the United States cannot accept Putin's proposal, even if it also seeks to reach an agreement with China.
“One does not exclude the other,” he says. — You can continue to seek an agreement with China, but at the same time say: “okay, we will maintain the restrictions [wynikające z] New START treaty for another year.
Uncertain future
If Trump's goal is to replace this agreement with one involving China, the plan could backfire, Kimball said.
This is because China's goal in building a stockpile of nuclear weapons is to maintain the ability to counter the nuclear threat posed by the United States.
“If the United States and Russia begin to increase the number of nuclear weapons they deploy, it will send a signal to China that it must continue its strategic nuclear buildup, and probably even accelerate it to a higher level than it is currently considering,” Kimball says.
In 2010, Rose Gottemoeller — the U.S. chief negotiator for the New START treaty — stated that without ratification of the treaty, “our understanding of Russia's nuclear forces will significantly weaken over time, increasing the risk of misunderstanding, distrust and [realizacji] worst case scenarios.”
Donald Trump, Washington, February 3, 2026Alex Wong / Staff / Getty Images
Her words reflected concerns that persist to this day. In addition to limiting the growing stockpile of nuclear weapons, the New START treaty also introduced a number of control, data-sharing and verification mechanisms – although many of these were put on hold due to the war in Ukraine. This was to ensure that neither side would be surprised by developments in the other side's nuclear arsenal.
Experts and officials say that a future without such mechanisms will be characterized by greater uncertainty and risk.
In an interview with Reuters, Dmitry Medvedev, deputy chairman of the Security Council and former president of Russia, said the expiration of the New START treaty would accelerate the “doomsday clock” which is a metaphor for humanity's self-destruction.
“I don't want to say that this means an immediate catastrophe and the outbreak of nuclear war, but it should still worry everyone,” Medvedev said.
— In just a few days, the world will be in a more dangerous situation than ever before Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said before the agreement expired.
On Tuesday, he said Trump had not responded to Putin's proposal. He has not yet provided details about the agreement that would replace the New START treaty.
