INS confirms: Romania is starting to tighten its belt. Food sales down in 2025, retailers worried about falling sales and customers

Statistics confirmed on Thursday that trade sales (which closely approximate private consumption) are in decline, with retail trade growing by just 0.2% last year, after food, drink and tobacco sales fell by 2.7%.

All sectors are complaining of falling sales, customers and orders, according to the calculations behind the Confidex index. The Confidex study (the only longitudinal study in Romania that measures, for over five years, the confidence of business people in the national economy) has been carried out since 2020 by the Impetum Group, coagulating around it a community of over 4,500 entrepreneurs and business people from Romania.

However, Trade and Industry remain the most positive and balanced sectors at the end of 2025. Construction and Transport remain largely cautious, while IT and Agriculture are more pessimistic, especially due to the impact of AI and weather conditions.

We remind you that the data published on Thursday by the INS confirm the decrease in services provided to the population, which HotNews wrote about.

Widespread decline, not a one-off problem

INS data show that these services registered a consistent decline in October:

• hotels and restaurants: -12% compared to the previous month, -9.4% year/year;
• travel agencies and tour operators: decreases both monthly and annually;
• laundries and cleaners: -7.8% year/year;
• even gambling and recreational activities are slightly in negative territory year-over-year (by about 5%)

When services that normally stand up better in difficult times also fall, we are talking about a deeper adjustment in consumption behavior.

Why it's not just a “seasonal effect”

INS publishes both the raw series and the seasonally adjusted series. The decrease occurs in both. This means that it is not explained by holidays and does not depend on the number of working days. In conclusion, it is not a statistical accident.

The adjusted series is what both central banks and macro analysts use to gauge real trends. And this series clearly indicates a contraction.

The link to real incomes and inflation

Even though inflation has moderated from the peaks of 2022–2023, the cumulative effects on household budgets have not disappeared. A significant portion of wage increases in recent years has been absorbed by higher housing costs, essential services, higher interest rates.

What we see now in services for the population is the second stage of the adjustment: after consumption has been artificially supported for a while, households become more cautious and cut right out of the “non-essential” zone.

Why it matters for GDP and the economic outlook

Services for the population have a significant share in added value and employment. A prolonged decline here means pressure on small and medium-sized businesses, delayed investment, weaker GDP growth in the coming quarters.

In other words, the data in this release is an early signal that the economy is slowing, before it is visible in GDP figures or employment statistics.

INS does not make interpretations, but the data clearly suggest: population consumption is no longer the engine of growth from previous years, and the economy is entering a normalization phase, after years of successive shocks.

Bottom line: When people start giving up vacations, restaurants, personal services, and recreation, the economy sends a simple message: money is being spent more carefully, and growth is becoming more fragile.