JSW and KGHM on opposite sides of the quotations. Foreign capital determines trends on the WSE
Friday's share trading was marked by a weaker attitude of the main WSE indices compared to the European base markets. However, this did not prevent WIG20 from having its 8th consecutive week of growth. Due to the rapid depreciation of metals, the price of KGHM suffered and was also affected by quite a stock exchange scandal. On the other side of the table of results of WIG-Mining index companies was the share price of JSW, which was gaining on market speculations linking the two mining companies. Foreign capital flowed in a wide stream, and its provenance is evidenced by the scale of turnover.
Friday's closing brought moderate declines in the main WSE indices, which, in the context of the entire week, did not prevent the upward trend from continuing. WIG20 fell by 0.63 percent, but in five days it increased by nearly 2.5 percent. This was the 8th consecutive week of growth on WIG20, the series of which has been going on since the first half of December.
The situation is similar with WIG, which gained just over 2.1% in a week. and on Friday he gave back only 0.12 percent. Strong increases in mWIG40 (1.78%) helped, as it ended the week with an increase of around 1.5%. Small companies and their sWIG80 remained neutral on Friday (-0.03%), and gained 1% throughout the week.
What is noteworthy is Friday's turnover, which amounted to PLN 3.9 billion on the broad market, of which PLN 3.33 billion concerned WIG20 companies, but again more than 1/3 in this group was taken by trading on KGHM.
KGHM and JSW: together, yet apart
The main topic of the day was the drastic decline in the metals market. The price of silver dropped by over 14 percent, and copper fell by about 5 percent, which caused an avalanche on KGHM shares. The shares of the Lublin concern lost as much as 10.7%, ending the day at PLN 332.10. The price reduction was accompanied by controversy related to the information about the dismissal of the company's president, Andrzej Szydło, and the form in which this information was made public.
Moreover, stock exchange speculations could have cast a shadow on the price, stating that decision-making circles are considering the option of merging the highly profitable KGHM with the unprofitable JSW with mWIG40. The price of the coking coal mining company gained as much as 10.88% on Friday. Given the weight of KGHM, which together with JSW forms the WIG-Górnictwo index, it was difficult to find a different result for the index itself than its depreciation by 9.96%.
The official information in the context of JSW was that the head of MAP was counting on an agreement in the company that would allow it to maintain liquidity. However, JSW itself issued a statement that the company's authorities would not comment on the course of negotiations or speculations appearing in the public space.
Management @jsw_sa and representative trade union organizations inform that until the talks are completed, they will not comment on their course or on speculations appearing in the public space. https://t.co/jyA10dDdm7
👉 This decision results from responsibility for…
— JSW SA (@jsw_sa) January 30, 2026
It is worth noting, however, that the possible idea of merging mining companies is not innovative on the market, where attempts to consolidate the industry are observed. However, they are usually intended to bring benefits to both merged entities, which is not so obvious in the case of speculations about JSW and KGHM.
Banks and the energy sector as “white knights”
If it weren't for the financial and fuel sectors, WIG20 could have ended the day in a red. However, KGHM's declines were neutralized by PKO BP (1.94%), Pekao (1.88%) and Orlen (1.39%). The WIG-Banki index increased by 1.74%, approaching its Tuesday record. As analysts note, despite high ratings, banks' multipliers are still not excessive.
The energy sector showed its real strength. WIG-Energy increased by 4.44%, driven by Enea (5.06%), PGE (5.29%) and Tauron (4.57%). Everything indicates that investors have digested the new distribution tariffs. The index chart suggests that the autumn correction is already behind us.
The end of the gaming world as we know it?
What attracted attention was the rapid, 8% decline in CD Projekt's shares. This is a direct result of the market shock caused by the presentation Google Project Genie. Investors, observing double-digit declines in global leaders such as Unity and Roblox, began to discount the risk of the collapse of the traditional game development model.
The concerns mainly concern the loss of technological advantage and the lowering of the barrier to entry into the industry. Google's tool allows you to generate interactive 3D worlds using simple prompts. Market announcements and analyst comments directly indicate concerns that Google's tool will compete with existing platforms for game and content creators and increase concerns about the impact of AI on margins and the stability of developers' jobs.
XTB and the rally after the results
Among the second-line companies, the XTB price shined, rising by 11.73%. at very high volume. Investors responded enthusiastically to the estimated results for the fourth quarter, which exceeded the market consensus (net profit of PLN 180.5 million). The management board also maintained ambitious plans to acquire up to PLN 290,000. new customers quarterly.
Are emerging markets coming back into favor?
Analysts draw attention to an important global signal – the MSCI Emerging Markets index breaks a 15-year streak of weakness relative to developed markets. This may mean a long-term inflow of capital to countries such as Poland.
“Perhaps this signals a longer period of relatively better behavior of emerging markets, including MSCI Poland, or WIG20 in USD,” said Sobiesław Kozłowski, director of the Analysis and Advisory Department at Noble Securities, quoted by PAP.
“The question is whether this is the end of the dollar's weakness and whether the banks, Orlen, KGHM have already said the last word. We have a record WIG Banki index of over 20,000 points, KGHM's strong performance with today's correction, Orlen's exit above PLN 100. Looking at the multipliers, banks are not highly valued. What is missing is an improvement in banks' results in 2026,” he added.
In his opinion, foreign capital currently determines trends on the WSE. “Perhaps domestic capital will also join, but at the moment its impact on the indices is not visible when it comes to WIG or WIG20,” the expert concluded.
