According to strategists from the investment bank Stifel, the stock market is currently sending a rare and potentially disturbing signal. The impetus is not the AI boom, but rather the development of the relationship between stocks and gold. The S&P 500 index has recently been significantly behind the precious metal in terms of rates of return. While gold has already gained more than 20 percent since the beginning of the year (the price reached a record $5,500 per ounce), the leading US index has so far recorded an increase of only about 1 percent. (though he did record new all-time records on Wednesday).
Strategists explain that the long-term relationship between stocks and gold has been broken. The S&P 500 index has fallen below its seven-year moving average relative to the gold price.
Such a signal is extremely rare. Over the last century, this average has been exceeded only four times. The last time this happened was over two decades ago – around the time the internet bubble burstj. “Historically, such periods have often been followed by difficult years for investors,” Stifel wrote in a note.
In all previous cases, according to strategists, the shares fluctuated in a narrow range for a long time and struggled to gain in value. Moreover, in the following years the economy generally did not record any productivity growth or low inflation.
“The S&P 500 index has clearly lost ground compared to gold,” wrote a team led by Barry Bannister, managing director of Stifel. “Perhaps this time will be different and both stocks and gold will continue to rise. But to us this sounds like a widespread flight from fiat money – and historically speaking, this has never ended well,” it added.
See also: The boom takes no prisoners. Historical records on the WSE, WIG20 the highest in 18 years
Stifel predicts that the S&P 500 index will enter a consolidation phase at the level of 7,000 points. This level is considered an important psychological threshold, which the index briefly breached for the first time on Wednesday. Moreover, this level is supported by Stifel's share risk premium and its own index pricing models, strategists said, citing previous analyses.
Confidence in the stock market in 2026
Many Wall Street analysts still expect a strong year for the stock market in 2026. However, the outlook for stocks remains uncertain. Geopolitical tensions repeatedly create uncertainty, compounded by doubts about the long-term sustainability of the AI-fueled stock market boom
Stifel, which has recently taken a rather cautious stance, still predicts the potential for the S&P 500 index to rise by up to 9%. this year. At the same time, however, the bank warns that the index may fall by up to 20%. , if the US economy falls into recession.
