the Croatians do not have a “bomber” in attack and are fragile in defense

Probable starting teams for today's game:

• Dinamo Zagreb (4-3-3): Filipovic – Galesic, Dominguez, McKenna, Goda – Stojkovic, Misic, Zajc – Bakrar, Beljo, Hoxha

• FCSB (4-2-3-1): Târnovanu – Crețu, Dawa, Graovac, Radunovic – Lixandru, Fl. Tănase – Miculescu, Olaru, Cisotti – Bîrligea

No clear danger from the Croatians, where the red-blues can take advantage

Dinamo Zagreb will approach the game with FCSB in a 4-3-3 system, after the Croatians also performed in 4-2-3-1 in the Europa League. The transition is explained in numbers. Josip Misic is the classic stopper: he has 544 minutes in the single Europa League group, with 94% accuracy on short and medium passes, being the player with the most rebounds in the final third (13).

Where Dinamo Zagreb players recover the balloons // photo source: Wyscout

Next to him, Zajc collected 436 minutes with important input in the progression (70/78 successful forward passes). Stojkovic is a hard-working player who puts a lot of pressure in the midfield. Doesn't dominate possession in the middle.

The offensive line, however, explains the direction of play. Beljo was most efficient in finishing: 7 shots, 5 on target, 2 goals from a cumulative xG of 1.58, with most of the action inside the box. Bakar, often used from the substitute position, ticked off 4 shots on goal and a goal in 181 minutes, while Hoxha brings a touch of “magic”: 15 successful dribbles in the final third, the team leader in this regard.

How the Croatians shot in the 6 Europa League games // photo source: Wyscout

The data shows a pragmatic style. Dinamo dispatched 56 shots on goal in the 6 matches in the Europa League, of which 31 from inside the box (55%), 19 squares and an accumulated xG of 5.64 for 8 goals scored. The difference in goals and xG shows efficiency in good times, not necessarily consistent control. No Croatian player excels offensively, no man for FCSB to fear.

The weakness highlighted in Europe comes from the positional defense phase. Defeats against Lille (0-4), Celta (0-3) and Betis (1-3) followed the same pattern: opponents who passed quickly, moved play into lanes and forced the Croatians' defensive transition. Stoppers look good in aerial duels (Dominguez 9/11 duels won, McKenna 4/6 won), but the team suffers when forced to defend down low for long periods of time.

How the defenders from Dinamo Zagreb fare in aerial duels in the Europa League // photo source: Wyscout

Overall, Dinamo is an effective team in short moments, with a box-oriented attack and numbers that validate the direct profile. At the same time, the lack of control in long sequences and vulnerability to defensive transition explains why results have fluctuated in Europe.

FCSB can gain ground in two clear areas: 1) the offensive transition after the recovery, where Dinamo has a hard time recovering if it loses the ball up high; 2) attacks built laterally with quick changes of direction to get the full backs out of position.

At the same time, the Croatians lose a lot of balls in the lateral areas, especially if Galesic and Goda are put under pressure – opportunity for Cisotti and Miculescu. Fragmentation and multiple transitions will help Dinamo Zagreb.

Dinamo Zagreb loses a lot of balls in the side areas // photo source: Wyscout

Dinamo Zagreb Europa League results:

• 3-1 with Fenerbahce

• 3-1 with Maccabi Tel Aviv

• 1-1 with Malmo

• 0-3 with Celta Vigo

• 0-4 with Lille

• 1-3 with Betis