INTERVIEW Kiev is under bombs, the allies are arguing. How Ukraine is hit by the Greenland crisis: “An argument for the propagandist position of Russia and China”

For Russia and China, the transatlantic dispute triggered by Donald Trump's desire to take over Greenland, an autonomous Danish territory, “provides only a very solid argument for their old propaganda position, because for several decades already, both Russia and China claim that there is no so-called united West,” Oleksandr Kraiev, an international relations expert at the Ukrainian Foreign Policy Council “Ukrainian Prism” – said in an interview with the HotNews audience think-tank from Kiev.

The Greenland issue has diverted attention from Russia's aggression against Ukraine, noted Oleksandr Kraiev, international relations expert and researcher, director of the Ukrainian Prism Council's North America Program.

“We see that all Western diplomatic circles rewrote their speeches for Davos. We see that they diverted all activities to the prevention of American security actions and hard power against Greenland. And basically, we see that, unfortunately, the topic of the Ukrainian investment fund with the Americans and the topic of peace negotiations, which were previously considered the main topics of this Davos forum, were simply avoided and will be mostly avoided,” Kraiev said in the interview for the HotNews audience.

However, he does not believe that the current dispute will make Europeans forget about Ukraine, but he points out that what we can see is a loss of political momentum.

“In general, of course, all of Trump's actions divert attention from Ukraine, negotiations and military support for Ukraine to the issue of Greenland and possible American aggression,” he said.

While the Ukraine issue was almost completely buried by the Greenland issue, Trump nevertheless announced that he will meet with Volodymyr Zelensky in Davos on Thursday.

“Right now, there is no united force in the West”

Asked what effect Trump's claim to Greenland might have on Russia and China, the Kiev expert firmly replied: “For Russia and China, this only provides a very solid argument for their old propaganda position, because for several decades already, both Russia and China have been claiming that there is no so-called united West.”

“Russia claims that all countries in Europe are just puppets of the United States, and China claims that there is no united force in the West, only separate sovereign interests. And now we see that, unfortunately, they are right. At the moment, there is no united force in the West, only divergent opinions. And because of Trump, there is strong competition and many problems, even in terms of security,” the analyst pointed out.

The impossible problem of security guarantees

Asked whether US actions and the transatlantic dispute could undermine confidence in the security guarantees Ukraine needs to accept a peace deal, Kraiev replied in the affirmative: “This, of course, leads to less confidence in security guarantees, which provide for more bilateral actions as a substitute for multilateral actions.”

“We see, for example, that the Europeans are not yet ready to come to a conclusion on the final version of guarantees for Ukraine. And the Americans – well, I don't like their version, because, as Trump stated, they will be ready to provide security guarantees only when they are sure that Russia will not attack. This undermines the whole issue of guarantees, because they are supposed to stop a possible invasion,” the analyst explained.

“In this sense, it is quite difficult to say what the future security guarantees will be,” he believes.

What does Trump want?

Asked if there is a feeling in Kiev that Trump is not treating Ukraine correctly, in the context of negotiations with Russia, Kraiev noted that the US president's approach is the economic one:

“In terms of Trump's approach to negotiations, I see that the only thing that works for him and with him is the economy, economic development, economic plans.”

“He himself said that his main goal in Ukraine is to recover the money that, “Biden squandered somewhere in Ukraine.” So basically, for him, it's mostly about business,” observed Kraiev.

At the same time, he added, Trump also seems interested in the legacy he will leave.

“Plus, of course, it's mostly about ending the ninth war on his list, just to get a Nobel Peace Prize and be hailed as the greatest diplomat who ever lived,” Kraiev said.

What compromise is Kiev willing to make?

Krayev assured that Ukraine is willing to accept compromises, though not just any compromise.

As for the territories, no Ukrainian politician will agree to include the loss of territories in the treaty. However, one can talk about something similar to the Minsk format, namely bringing these occupied territories into a gray area from a legislative and jurisdictional point of view, explained the analyst from Ukraine.

How would this work practically?

“We will not recognize the loss of territories. Russia, on the other hand, will recognize the acquisition of territories. No one else will from our side. All of Russia's allies will recognize these territories of Russia and remain de facto under its control,” he explained.

Kraiev also said that Ukraine will not agree to give up EU membership, although there will most likely be a quasi-compromise on giving up NATO membership.

“And, of course, if we are talking about the armed forces of Ukraine, there will be no compromise on this, because reducing the number of personnel in the armed forces, limiting the funding of the armed forces or eliminating part of the armament would be a death sentence for Ukraine, because it would contribute to and encourage future aggression by Russia,” he said.

Kiev under bombs

The crisis dividing Ukraine's Western allies comes as the war rages on and Kiev is under an unmitigated assault from Russia.

Vladimir Putin is pushing Kiev toward a “humanitarian catastrophe,” the Ukrainian capital's mayor, Vitali Kliciko, warned after Russia's massive overnight attacks cut power, heating and water to half the city on Tuesday.

He advised residents to “leave if they can” as emergency crews struggled to restore power to snow-covered Kiev.

In the discussion with HotNews, Kraiev described the situation in the Ukrainian capital.

He said that in his apartment he has heating in the kitchen, but in the living room he does not have heat as it should. It is light for several hours a day, with interruptions lasting six, seven, sometimes eight hours. Immediately after the attack, electricity was cut off for 38 hours in Kiev, especially on the left bank, explained the Ukrainian analyst.

“There are many problems. Temperatures have been around minus 20, minus 22 for the last week, and now the weather is getting slightly better. Temperatures are around minus 10, minus 13, and it will be warmer starting next week, but still we are holding strong,” he assured.

“If the Russians tried to convince us to accept any kind of deal instead of continuing to fight, they failed. We are still fighting and we are ready to continue fighting. Even according to social surveys, although Ukrainians mostly support negotiations, they do not support negotiations at any cost,” Kraiev added.