The French Armed Forces are not fully adapted to conduct long-term military operations in Eastern Europe – according to the latest report of the Center for Eastern Studies. Jacek Tarociński from OSW explained in an interview with PAP that this is due to, among others, due to the lack of equipment reserves and the relative lightness of the land forces.
France, as a NATO member state with one of the largest defense potentials, will play a significant role in collective defense – also in the context of potentially reducing US military involvement in Europe – according to the latest report of the Center for Eastern Studies, obtained by PAP.
As one of the report's authors, Łukasz Maślanka from the Security and Defense Team at OSW, told PAP, a very large rhetorical change regarding France's security policy has been noticed in recent years.
– Official strategic documents show a shift from the priority of maintaining stability in areas important to France's policy, such as Africa, the Indo-Pacific or the Middle East, to the issue of collective defense in Europe, he explained. – It is especially noticeable in the update of the National Strategic Review in 2025, in which Russia is presented directly as a potential aggressor.
A large increase in military spending under Macron
Maślanka drew attention to the significant increase in military spending in recent years – since Emmanuel Macron became president, two laws on the planning of military expenditure (Lois de programmation militaire, LPM – PAP) were adopted, which set the direction for the modernization and reform of the French armed forces. The act for 2019-2025 amounted to EUR 295 billion, while the act for 2024-2030 amounted to EUR 413 billion.
The expert noted that the French authorities also want to accelerate the growth of expenditures so that LPM 2024-2030 can be implemented by the end of Macron's term, i.e. by 2027. However, an obstacle is the lack of a parliamentary majority, which resulted in the inability to adopt the budget for 2026. Another barrier to further increases in military spending is the 115 percent GDP public debt.
What is missing in the French army
According to the OSW report, although the French Armed Forces stand out among European NATO countries – they are the only fully expeditionary army capable of quickly deploying and supplying significant forces outside their country – they are not fully adapted to conduct military operations, e.g. in Ukraine. And, despite political declarations and changes in strategic documents, there are no plans to significantly expand them or break the expeditionary nature of land forces in favor of adapting them to the challenges of conducting a potential collective defense operation on NATO's eastern flank.
Jacek Tarociński from OSW explained in an interview with PAP that the armed forces of the French Republic for the last two decades have been focused almost exclusively on crisis response operations outside Europe. – These are forces with very high readiness, able to transfer soldiers over long distances in a short time; However, this comes at the expense of the relative lightness of these forces, he noted.
No hardware reserves
The inherent weakness – in the expert's opinion – of the French armed forces is the inability to conduct long-term defense operations due to the lack of equipment reserves and the relative lightness of land forces based on wheeled traction, which is of great importance in the context of collective defense.
– Although compared to other European armies they offer great flexibility and a high state of readiness, they do not have an extensive armored fleet. France now only has about 200 tanks, he explained. – At the moment, they are not able to conduct defense operations for many months or years in conditions such as those in Ukraine or those that could occur in Eastern Europe in the event of a potential NATO-Russia confrontation, he added.
The strength of the French Armed Forces, according to the OSW report, is the navy, which is currently one of the strongest in Europe, and the French air force, which is one of the largest air forces.
– France has the only nuclear-powered aircraft carrier outside the United States, and also has a whole host of smaller destroyers and frigates. Such a strong navy has the ability to maintain constant combat patrols, either in the North Sea or the Mediterranean, said Tarociński.
In turn, French aviation, according to the OSW report, has almost the full spectrum of capabilities (with the exception of the ability to combat enemy SEAD air defense), including reconnaissance, planning and execution of precise conventional or nuclear strikes at long distances.
Flexing your nuclear muscles
Moreover, as Maślanka pointed out, France is also trying to emphasize its capabilities in the collective defense of Europe by demonstrating its nuclear potential. The expert recalled that last year, among others, Cooperation between France and Great Britain – the only European nuclear powers apart from Russia – has been tightened, resulting in mutual coordination of nuclear planning policy and increased cooperation during security exercises.
– These events are intended to make us understand that France and Great Britain will be able to defend Europe in the nuclear dimension. This is, of course, a very significant step from a political point of view, but it is unlikely to lead to the construction of any European nuclear deterrent system. France too strongly emphasizes the sovereignty of its nuclear forces in its doctrine, Maślanka added.
In turn, Tarociński, when asked about the modernization of the French army, said that in recent decades, France had neglected the aspect of conducting a conflict with an equal enemy. Although – in the expert's opinion – this has started to change, there is “neither political will nor budgetary space for the army to make quantitative changes, not only qualitative ones.”
There is a lack of building new formations
– They are buying new anti-tank systems or drones, but we do not see the creation of new formations, such as a brigade or even subunits, such as regiments or battalions. We are mainly dealing with mixing and reorganizing existing structures to make them more optimized for conducting collective defense operations – explained Tarociński.
The key date in French security policy is, according to the OSW report, 2027, when the presidential elections will be held. The victory of the candidate of the National Rally (RN; Marine Le Pen's party – PAP) may mean a significant change; this group calls for the lifting of some of the sanctions imposed on Russia, is skeptical about the supply of arms and military equipment to Ukraine, and – following the example of the Hungarian and Slovak authorities – calls for a ceasefire in the Russian-Ukrainian war as soon as possible.
However, Łukasz Maślanka drew attention to the importance of the generational change in the National Council, which may have a long-term impact on its pro-Russian attitude and attitude towards military spending.
– Among the young MPs or MEPs of the National Council, there are also politicians who openly criticize Russia and believe that if France should not be involved in military aid for Ukraine, it should at least stand firmly with its NATO allies, also to confirm France's independence and sovereignty towards the United States – he explained.
As the expert added, the current leader of this group, Jordan Bardella, is much less associated with pro-Russian views than Marine Le Pen.
– If the National Rally candidate actually became president, France would probably strive to tighten military ties with Great Britain, but relations with Germany would deteriorate. Perhaps the French would also seek some kind of agreement with the countries of Central Europe, including Poland, and, of course, with populist allies from Hungary, the Czech Republic and Slovakia. But it all also depends on the international situation, the status of the war in Ukraine, and the policy of the American administration, Maślanka noted.
Polish-French relations
When asked about French-Polish relations, Tarociński emphasized that both countries are participating together in the ELSA (European Long-Range Strike Approach) program and have been trying to develop jointly land-launched long-range strike systems, i.e. cruise missiles, for two years.
– French technologies are necessary here to ensure that Europe has sovereign air defense capabilities – emphasized the expert.
He added that at the end of 2022, Poland and France also concluded a contract for two observation satellites; The French also have such satellites in a constellation with Italy.
– Neither Poland, nor France, nor Italy need a dozen or so satellites to observe the entire Earth, only a few to check our piece of the planet. But a single satellite must circle the entire planet and sometimes it will be over Europe and sometimes over the Seychelles – so by combining forces here and different satellites, we are able to significantly reduce the cost of observation and shorten the time for the satellite to reappear over our area of interest – explained Tarociński.
In the opinion of experts, Poland should look for opportunities to strengthen its own arms industry through cooperation with France – e.g. through the European Defense Investment Program (EDIP) adopted a few weeks ago. EDIP provides for subsidies for cooperating industries of member states that want to strengthen production or build new production lines; the program budget is EUR 1.5 billion and its duration is limited to December 31, 2027.
According to Maślanka, Polish and French companies could also more often apply jointly for grants from the European Defense Fund EDF, which are intended for research and experimental work in the field of the arms industry.
– Poland has been relatively absent from these programs so far – noted Maślanka. – It is certainly in the interest of PGZ and also in the interest of private arms companies to seek joint cooperation and joint grants to modernize Polish armaments.
Agata Gutowska (PAP)
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