According to the United Surveys by IBRiS survey for Wirtualna Polska, if elections were to be held soon, people would take part in them. 57.9 percent respondents (definitely yes – 50.9%, rather yes – 7.0%).
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Poll. Who would enter the Sejm today?
Among people determined to take part in the elections, the largest group of respondents declares support for the Civic Coalition. However, Donald Tusk's party recorded a decline by 0.6 points. percent compared to the December survey. Law and Justice took second place. Confederation closes the podium.
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Grzegorz Braun's Confederation of the Polish Crown and the Left would also enter the Sejm. However, Poland 2050 and PSL would not exceed the electoral threshold.
The Razem Party, although it did not achieve the required 5% support, recorded the largest increase in the survey, gaining 2 percentage points.
Below are the full results of the survey among decisive voters:
- Civic Coalition: 30.9 percent (decrease by 0.6 percentage points)
- Law and Justice: 25.9 percent (increase by 0.8 percentage points)
- Confederation: 11.2 percent (decrease by 0.9 percentage points)
- Confederation of the Polish Crown (Grzegorz Braun): 9.7 percent (increase by 1.6 percentage points)
- Left: 8.2 percent (increase by 1.0 percentage points)
- Party Together: 4.4 percent (increase by 2.0 percentage points)
- PSL: 3.2 percent (decrease by 1.7 percentage points)
- Poland 2050: 2.0 percent (increase by 1.0 percentage points)
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Seat division simulation: PiS and Konfederacja with a potential majority
As we read in Wirtualna Polska, with the current support, the Civic Coalition would win 182 seats, Law and Justice 149, Konfederacja 53, Konfederacja Korony Polskiej 43, and the Left 33.
Such an arrangement would mean that neither party would achieve the independent majority required to form a government (231 votes).
Only a broad right-wing bloc, including PiS, Confederation and Grzegorz Braun's party, would be able to form a government. Together, these parties could count on 245 seats. However, as experts note, reaching an agreement within such a diverse coalition could prove to be a challenge.
The survey was conducted by United Surveys by IBRiS on behalf of Wirtualna Polska. The study was carried out on January 2-4, 2026, using the online mix-mode method and telephone, standardized, computer-assisted questionnaire interviews (CAWI/CATI) on a sample of N=1,000 people.
