Donald Trump does not intend to repeat the mistakes of Iraq. After Nicolás Maduro was removed from power, the White House is implementing the “oil for goods” model in Venezuela. Although the US president promises an oil revolution in 18 months, investors must face the brutal truth: Venezuelan deposits are a technological nightmare.
The American administration is creating a vision of an oil eldorado in Caracas, but the White House's enthusiasm is being dampened by hard market data. Before American companies start counting profits, they must face several barriers that may bury Donald Trump's plan. According to CNN, the following issues are key:
- infrastructural ruin: Years of lack of investment and corruption have turned Venezuela's oil fields into a technological scrap yard. Repairing pipelines and refineries requires not months but years of work;
- billions of dollars in capital needs: estimates indicate that restoring production to decade-old levels will cost from tens to hundreds of billions of dollars. US companies will expect firm return guarantees;
- legal and regulatory chaos: investors need stable law, not decrees. The lack of a clear framework for deposit ownership remains a huge operational risk;
- political ground under your feet: despite the change of government, the country's political stability remains fragile. The safety of workers and installations is in question;
- debt loop: Venezuela owes billions of dollars to foreign entities: Eni, Repsol, ConocoPhillips and ExxonMobil, because the assets of foreign companies were nationalized in 2007. Settlement of the past is a necessary condition for new contracts.
Iraq model 2.0: “This time we will keep the oil”
“We will rule Venezuela until a safe, orderly and reasonable transition takes place,” Donald Trump announced after the successful capture of Maduro during a press conference. The US president also directly distances himself from the policies of George W. Bush. – Bush didn't stop the oil. We will keep the oil, he declared. Washington's strategy is clear: take physical control of the raw material to cut off the influence of China and Russia in the region.
The financial mechanism imposed on the interim authorities in Caracas is ruthless. Venezuela is to donate 50 million barrels of oil to the US, but will not see the cash. The funds from the sale will go to special accounts from which the country will only be able to finance purchases of goods and services from American companies. This is a classic barter that is intended to stimulate the US economy while guaranteeing giants such as Chevron and ExxonMobil reimbursement of the costs of rebuilding the infrastructure.
Maduro's private fortune is worth $700 million. He himself swore: I don't have money anywhere in the world
A residence in the Dominican Republic, private jets and Swiss watches – this is only a fraction of the fortune that Nicolas Maduro had at his disposal. Coming from a working-class family, the future president of Venezuela quickly forgot his roots, accumulating wealth at a surprising pace. In 2025, the US confiscated his assets worth $700 million.
A statistical war for trillions of barrels
Venezuela has for years boasted of having the largest reserves in the world, estimated by PDVSA at 1.3 trillion barrels. However, these data arouse great skepticism among analysts. Caracas' official data says it was 300 billion barrels, but this indicator suddenly increased from 80 billion at the end of the 2000s, which, according to the BP Statistical Review, was only to facilitate debt rollover.
Venezuela's oil resources.
US President Donald Trump said Tuesday that Venezuela's interim government will deliver up to 50 million barrels of oil to the United States, and that the proceeds “will be controlled by me” as president pic.twitter.com/2md0RHmZlH
— AFP News Agency (@AFP) January 7, 2026
The American Geological Survey USGS estimates the resources at 380-625 billion barrels, while Rystad Energy's conservative valuation indicates only 100 billion barrels of actually recoverable resources. The key issue is the extraction rate. In Venezuela it is less than 10%, while the standard in Saudi Arabia is 40%. American corporations are tasked with increasing this efficiency, but they start from a very low level. And the task will not be easy.
The curse of the Merey species: heavy, sour and expensive oil
Investors looking at Venezuela must remember that the oil there is not black gold from Texas. The raw material from the Orinoco Basin is one of the most difficult types of oil to refine in the world. Merey pus is the heaviest and most sulphated raw material in the world. This grade is characterized by a high density, which requires mixing with kerosene or lighter grades in order for the oil to flow through pipelines. Additionally, high sulfur content means that processing requires specialized, energy-intensive refinery installations. As a result, the extraction and transport of Merey are many times more expensive than in the case of WTI or Brent crude oil. For the above reasonsOpa Merey is sometimes called the worst oil in the world.
Heavy and sour Venezuelan crude will be welcome in the U.S. market, where there is little shortage. It is worth remembering that the prices of petroleum products may determine winning or losing an election. Republicans had recently suffered a series of defeats and needed to mobilize their voters. Venezuela was the perfect target for such a showpiece success, he says XTB Junior Financial Markets Analyst Kamil Szczepański.
– Venezuelan deposits are gigantic. When it comes to technological capabilities, Venezuela has structural and infrastructural backwardness, which means that mining cannot be restored on a large scale overnight. This requires investment, said Jakub Bogucki, an analyst at e-petrol.pl.
25 years of degradation. Is 18 months enough?
EIA (US Energy Information Administration) data illustrate the scale of the economic collapse of Venezuela and the former oil giant – PDVSA. Since Hugo Chavez came to power in 1998, production has decreased by as much as 3.5 times. As recently as 2015, the country produced 2.6 million barrels per day, while in 2024, average production dropped to just 900,000. barrels.
The degradation of the oil industry in Venezuela began in 2002, when 18,000 workers were laid off after mass strikes. specialists from PDVSA. Today, the mining infrastructure is in shambles, and the return to previous processing capacity within 18 months, as Trump promises, is considered unrealistic by many experts.
Bogucki, however, points out that with weakening demand for oil, American companies may want to invest more in their local deposits than in deposits in Venezuela, which “is not the most secure ground.”
Geopolitical earthquake
Trump's plan is a direct attack on China, which for years has been receiving Venezuelan oil at a huge discount in exchange for loans. Cutting off Beijing from these supplies and announcing the expulsion of “foreign agents” (Russia, Cuba) from Caracas means that Venezuela is becoming the most important front of the new Cold War.
Oil remains the main source of revenue for Russia and Iran, which – as an XTB analyst said – are currently teetering on the brink of economic cataclysm. “China, in turn, has accumulated unprecedented supplies of raw materials in recent quarters, which may be related to the planned confrontation in the Taiwan Strait in 2027-2028,” he says. Kamil Szczepański.
American clean-up in Caracas. “Return to the power of superpowers”
The events in Venezuela are an example of a return to the politics of great powers and an indication that the region is under American influence – said American expert Prof. for PAP. Tomasz Płudowski. I expect there will be elections; The US will most likely have access to the deposits, or at least better trade conditions, he pointed out.
The key question for the markets remains: Will American companies be able to neutralize the technological and political risk? For now, the shares of the giants are rising, but the real test will be the moment when the first tankers with Merey crude oil enter the refineries in the Gulf of Mexico under new, “Trumpist” conditions.
PKO BP analyst Tomasz Niewiński said in an interview with PAP that in the long term we can expect negative pressure on the market and a further decline in raw material prices due to the potential increase in oil production and exports from Venezuela. Niewiński pointed out that in 2026, the International Energy Agency expects an excess of oil on the market at the level of 3.8 million barrels per day. – This is a very large oversupply – he said. He added that the US Department of Energy estimates the increase in global crude oil reserves at 2.3 million barrels per day.
– In the case of Brent quotations, the Reuters consensus for 2026 is just over $61. per barrel, forecasts are in the range of $55-68. per barrel – the analyst said. – Americans from the Department of Energy forecast the average price of crude oil this year at $55. per barrel – noted Niewiński.
