Shopping in the supermarket, PHOTO: Richard B. Levine / Imago Stock and People / Profimedia Images
After a year in which the impact of tariffs on the cost of living for Americans was limited, the pressure on prices in the United States risks intensifying significantly in 2026, as companies begin to transfer costs to consumers, and the Trump administration approaches the midterm elections, reports CNN, taken by News.ro.
In 2025, the United States collected about $187 billion more in tariffs than in 2024, an increase of nearly 200 percent. According to JPMorgan estimates, about 80% of this burden was borne by companies, not consumers. However, this balance is about to change.
Trade consultants say that companies, which initially avoided price increases, are increasingly forced to apply them. Kyle Peacock, principal at Peacock Tariff Consulting, says many companies have already started to factor tariff costs into prices at the start of the new year, with others planning to do so in the first or second quarter. Products with low profit margins, such as food, are among the most vulnerable.
This development creates a major policy dilemma for President Donald Trump: Keeping the tariffs in place risks fueling discontent over the cost of living, while relaxing them would undermine a heavily promoted economic policy.
Trump mocked on Wall Street
Over time, Trump has delayed or withdrawn several tariff threats, often enough that the acronym “TACO” — “Trump Always Chickens Out” — has been circulating on Wall Street.
At the very beginning of the year, the White House postponed significant tariffs on furniture, cabinets and Italian pasta, without detailed explanations. The move suggests that the administration is sensitive to the political risks generated by the tariffs and could also look for opportunities in 2026 to discreetly reduce some measures.
Inflationary pressures are already visible. Goldman Sachs economists estimate that the tariffs added about half a percentage point to inflation in 2025, helping to push the Federal Reserve's 2 percent target higher. For the first six months of this year, Goldman anticipates another three-tenths of a percentage point higher, as costs are passed on to consumers.
A major factor of uncertainty, however, is the US Supreme Court, which is to rule on the legality of the most extensive tariffs imposed by Trump. The disputed tariffs have already brought more than 130 billion dollars to the budget. A decision unfavorable to the administration could limit the president's ability to introduce new tariffs and could even lead to refunds for companies.
At the same time, American officials let it be understood that, in case of a negative decision, they could resort to other tariff instruments. Against the background of declining popularity and increased sensitivity to the cost of living, the central question for 2026 remains open: will tariffs become a major inflationary shock or will they be diluted again through exceptions, postponements and tactical withdrawals.
