74 percent for war, 2 percent for the Nobel Prize for Trump. “Economist” forecasts for 2026

The weekly “Economist” quotes the predictions of experts from Good Judgment – a company specializing in political and economic forecasts – for 2026. In their assessment, the probability that Russia's war against Ukraine will not end before January 1, 2027 is 74 percent.

The British weekly quotes the predictions of the American company Good Judgment, affiliated with the University of Pennsylvania, which has been recognized for years as a center preparing the best forecasts.

Good Judgment specialists estimate that there is a chance that in next year's elections to the US Congress, falling in the middle of the president's term, Democrats will gain a majority in the House of Representatives and Republicans will retain control of the Senateis 62 percent. The probability that Republicans will have a majority in both houses of Congress was estimated at 23 percent, and the Democrats' chances for such an outcome were estimated at 15 percent.

The forecasts for US economic growth are rather pessimistic – experts estimate the probability that GDP growth in relation to 2025 will be between 0 and 2% at 54%, and the chance that it will be between 2 and 4%. – at 38 percent

The probability that global GDP growth in 2026 will be between 1.5 and 3 percent. is estimated at 45 percent, and that it will be between 3 and 4.5 percent. – at 44 percent

The chances of Prime Minister Viktor Orban's ruling Fidesz party in Hungary to retain the majority after the parliamentary elections in 2026 are 32 percent, and the probability that the party will lose its position is 43 percent.

Good Judgment estimates that US President Donald Trump's prospects of receiving the Nobel Peace Prize are 2 percent. (PAP)

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