The Monetary Policy Council cuts rates and inflation slows down to 2.5%. Economic summary of 2025

In 2025, NBP interest rates decreased by a total of 1.75 percentage points, which was mainly the result of a decline in inflation. The rate cuts were followed by declines in loan interest rates, although the pace of reductions was much lower in the case of consumer loans and higher in the case of housing loans.

Consumer inflation dropped from 4.7 percent. in December 2024 to 2.5 percent in November 2025 (data for December is not available yet), i.e. by 2.2 percentage points. Core inflation – calculated after excluding food and energy prices – decreased in this period from 4%. up to 2.7 percent The reduction in inflation was followed by reductions in NBP interest rates. In 2025, the Monetary Policy Council made 7 reductions by a total of 1.75 percentage points. The main interest rate of the Polish central bank dropped from 5.75 percent. in December 2024 to 4 percent in December 2025

The reduction in central bank interest rates was followed by reductions in loan interest rates, but – according to NBP data – the pace of these reductions varied depending on the type of loan. However, the central bank publishes information on interest rates applied in banking agreements with a delay. The latest data comes from the end of October 2025. Back then, the scale of NBP rate cuts was 1.25 percentage points, and the main interest rate was 4.5%.

In the case of housing loans, the interest rate on new and renegotiated contracts decreased from 7.5%. (at an actual interest rate of 8.4%) in December 2024 to 6.5%. (at the actual interest rate of 7.2%) in October 2025. This means a reduction of 1 point. percent in terms of interest rate and by 1.2 points. percent in terms of the real interest rate. However, some borrowers may not have felt this reduction, because – according to ZBP data – about 30 percent. all existing loans were granted for the so-called a temporarily fixed interest rate (usually for a period of 5 years).

In turn, the interest rate on consumer loans hardly changed – in December 2024 it amounted to an average of 11.6%. (with the actual interest rate at 12.5%), then at the end of October it was 11.4%. (and the real rate is 12.4%). The interest rate on deposits also decreased slightly – in the case of new and renegotiated contracts it was 4%. in December 2024 and 3.6 percent in October 2025

The reductions in interest rates did not fully translate into the yields of wholesale bonds. At the last bond sale auction in 2024 (held on December 11), five-year bonds with maturity in 2030 had a yield of 5.336%, and ten-year bonds with maturity in 2034 – 5.649%. In turn, at this year's last bond sale auction, 5-year securities with a maturity date in 2031 had a yield of 4.661 percent, and 10-year securities with a maturity date in 2035 – 5.199 percent.

During the year, the zloty also strengthened. Compared to the euro, our currency gained in value to a lesser extent – while on December 31, 2024, the average euro exchange rate according to the National Bank of Poland was 4.2730, on December 18, 2025 it was PLN 4.2076. The zloty gained much more significantly against the dollar. On the last day of 2024, the average dollar exchange rate according to the National Bank of Poland was PLN 4.1012, while on December 18, 2025 it was only PLN 3.5893. (PAP)

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