In the following quarters, the investment dynamics will improve, and in the whole of 2026 it may reach levels close to double-digit – predicts the director of the macroeconomic and financial markets analysis office at Bank Gospodarstwa Krajowego, Piotr Dmitrowski. Investments are supported by, among others: stabilization of macro conditions, including calming down of price processes and looser monetary policy.
“The third quarter of 2025 brought encouraging data on investments. Expenditures on fixed assets increased by 7.1% YoY. I believe that this is only the beginning of better results and in the following quarters the investment dynamics will improve. Throughout 2026, it may reach levels close to double digits,” Dmitrowski told PAP Biznes.
“This is due to several reasons. It is very important to stabilize macroeconomic conditions, which is what the economy has been missing for a long time. We have had several quarters of stable consumption growth and calming down of price processes,” he added.
As he pointed out, recent months have also brought a weakening of wage pressure and greater stabilization of demand.
“First Covid, then the war in Ukraine generated uncertainty and volatility. This was visible primarily on the raw material markets, which disrupted the functioning of enterprises and generated risks related to the level of margins that could be achieved,” the economist said.
“Recent quarters have brought greater stabilization of demand, calmer price processes and the accompanying weakening of wage pressure, and, consequently, greater predictability of profits” – he added.
Dmitrowski noted that in such an environment, it is easier for companies to plan the future and decide on investments that have been suspended so far.
“This is matched by a looser monetary policy, which facilitates access to financing. The Monetary Policy Council reduced interest rates by 175 basis points this year and still has room for further reductions. We will probably end next year with a reference rate of 3.5 percent. Moreover, the recovery in the credit market is already visible in the corporate segment,” said the BGK economist.
“At the same time, the public funds component will be very important. The calendar for the absorption of EU funds, primarily related to the KPO, will have an impact. This will be coupled with higher defense spending, which also has an investment component,” he added.
In the context of investments, geopolitical factors related to the war in Ukraine are also important, although the outcome of the ongoing negotiations regarding the peace agreement still remains uncertain.
“The potential de-escalation and conclusion of a peace agreement will have an impact on macroeconomic conditions. De-escalation in Ukraine will result in a reduction in inflationary pressure, mainly through the energy resources channel. From the point of view of the economy and consumers, this will be a positive phenomenon,” Dmitrowski told PAP Biznes.
“At the same time, the reconstruction of Ukraine will support the demand for our goods and services, but we will also have to take into account stronger competition from Ukrainian companies. Here, the logistics and agricultural sectors may come under pressure. There also remains the question of population flow. This will affect not only the volume of internal demand, but will also be important for the Polish labor market,” he added.
In an interview with PAP Biznes, the BGK economist noted that although the third quarter brought a clear rebound in investments, the biggest positive surprise was the contribution of international exchange.
“Although only marginally, it was positive. This means that with strong imports – related to consumer demand and investments – we also have strong exports, despite the poor condition of the most important export markets, including the industrial sector in Germany, competitive pressure from the Chinese industrial sector and the strong zloty,” he said.
“This shows that Polish exporters are adapting to these difficult conditions,” he added.
As Dmitrowski pointed out, as a result, Poland's economic growth is more sustainable than could be expected at the beginning of the year.
“I was afraid that in the current conditions, the trade deficit would expand dynamically, which would result in a larger current account deficit. Nevertheless, data for Q3 and the latest NBP data on the C/A balance for October reduce these fears,” the economist told PAP Biznes.
“The positive surprise regarding trade resulted in a revision of our forecasts for 2026. We currently expect that GDP growth in 2026 will be slightly stronger than in the current year and will reach 3.7 percent.” – he added.
Patrycja Sikora (PAP Biznes)
stalemate/ace/
