“It is possible that in the last quarter we will have another minus compared to the third quarter; a technical recession would not be excluded”, says one of the most renowned economists
Recession, Photo: Yuriy Panyukov / Alamy / Profimedia
The decrease in consumption in October could influence the evolution of the GDP, and a possible contraction of the economy in the fourth quarter compared to the third quarter would mean entering into a technical recession, believes the president of the CFA Romania Association, Adrian Codirlaşu.
“We had on non-seasonally adjusted data more than 4% decrease in consumption in August compared to August the previous year. Then it decreased to around 3%, but after that it was 4.6% in October. So the decrease was accentuated. This thing was somehow anticipated. It would not have been right to be otherwise. It shows a rational consumer because his income decreased and he adjusted his behavior. We had inflation of 10%. Net salary increase with 4%. Deci pierdere în jur de 6% a puterii de cumpărare. Iar aceasta sa văzut în consum. Cumva asta ar trebui să se vadă şi în PIB-ul din trimestrul IV. Consumul este cel mai important driver al PIB-ului. Din cauza asta aş spune că n-ar fi exclusă recesiunea tehnică. Deja avem trimestrul III faţă de trimestrul II cu un minus mic. S-ar putea să avem în trimestrul IV faţă de trimestrul III un alt minus şi să avem recesiune tehnică. Însă pe tot We will end the year with a small increase. Smaller than last year, but it will be an increase. The problem is that we are starting the year with a hit,” said Adrian Codirlaşu in the “CFA 5 o' clock info” event organized by the CFA Romania Association.
He stated that we should wait for the November data to be able to draw a conclusion regarding the evolution of consumption and its impact on GDP.
According to the provisional data published by the National Institute of Statistics (INS), Romania's economy rose, in the first nine months of the current year, by 0.8% on the gross series and by 1.4% on the seasonally adjusted series, compared to the similar period in 2024, while in the third quarter of 2025 the Gross Domestic Product decreased in real terms by 0.2% compared to the previous quarter.
On the other hand, Alexandra Smedoiu, vice-president of the CFA Romania Association, warned that there is a risk of seeing an increase in VAT from the second part of next year, a decision that could be taken depending on the evolution of receipts after the first months, and the increase could be one or two percentage points. (Agerpres)
