The English and French call for mobilization for war. What this means for Romania: “The Russians will act accordingly”

General (r) Ștefan Dănilă, former head of the Romanian army, and general (r) Virgil Bălăceanu explain, for “Adevărul”, how a military confrontation with Russia would look for Romania and NATO and to what extent it can still be avoided.

Europe feels the fear of war. PHOTO: Freepik

The United Kingdom is already preparing for a life and death showdown, and the opponent is named with subject and predicate. In the face of what the British call the Russian threat, the Chief of Staff of the British Army, Richard Knighton, called on Monday, December 15, for “national resilience”.

Richard Knighton argued that Russia's military power was growing, but also promised that the British would always be in NATO's first line of defence. He also stressed that the whole of British society must be prepared to resist.

Dire signals from London and Paris

“The situation is more dangerous than in my entire career, and the price of peace is rising. Sons and daughters, colleagues. Veterans … will all have a role to play. Let us build, serve. And if necessary, fight. And more families will know what it means to sacrifice for our nation.” Knighton said, according to Sky News.

His statements are not singular. A month ago, the head of the French Defense Staff, General Fabien Mandon, made a shocking statement, criticized by a good part of the French media and not only. General Mandon said with subject and sermon that France must be prepared to lose her children in war.

“We have all the knowledge, all the economic and demographic strength to dissuade the regime in Moscow from trying to move on. What we lack – and you have a major role here – is the fortitude to accept suffering in order to protect who we are. If our country backs down because it is not ready to accept – let's be honest – lose its children, suffer economically because defense production will take priority, then we are in danger.” said Fabien Mandonl, according to France24.

Previously, among the important politicians, the president of France, Emmanuel Macron, but also the German chancellor Friedrich Merz, made similar announcements. The first is in the vanguard and came up with the idea of ​​sending NATO troops to Ukraine. Military analysts, intelligence chiefs and politicians in several countries have warned that we are heading for a collision with Russia, which appears increasingly likely.

What do the Romanian generals think?

General (r) Ștefan Dănilă, former head of the Romanian army, between 2011 and 2015, and general (r) Virgil Bălăceanu, who represented Romania at the NATO Command in Brussels, analyze, for “Adevărul”, the risks regarding a war between NATO and Russia and those for Romania.

General (r) Virgil Bălăceanu believes that the call of the Chief of Staff of the British Army, Richard Knighton, to “national resilience” should not be understood as a step towards war.

“He has to convince, on the one hand, investments in defense and he has to convince the British that, if necessary, he has to achieve the defense posture and deterrence of NATO through the armed forces of Great Britain. Let's not forget that a battle group has as a framework nation Great Britain, in the Baltic states”explains General Virgil Bălăceanu.

Why a Russia-NATO war would benefit no one

In his opinion, the risk of NATO going to war with Russia is small, but as long as it is not equal to zero, all member states of the alliance must prepare their defensive posture.

“The war is, for now, in Ukraine, and my opinion is that it will remain in Ukraine. We cannot go for a scenario in which the Russian Federation would wage two wars, against Ukraine and against NATO. It is hard to believe that the Russian Federation, which fails, after four years of war, to defeat Ukraine, will succeed in defeating NATO.”
supports General Bălăceanu.

If many experts talk about Russia's obvious challenges, General Virgil Bălăceanu has a different opinion.

“I wouldn't say we see any direct challenges to NATO. Ultimately, both sides, both the Russian Federation and NATO, are very careful not to reach major incidents or serious situations that lead to a direct military conflict. This is the reality. Beyond the hybrid war that is and will be present especially on the Eastern border, we cannot go directly from a hybrid war to a classic war”, considers general Bălăceanu.

What would a war look like in which Romania would also take part

Even General Ștefan Dănilă does not see an inevitable military conflict between Russia and the European states.

“I don't think Russia or NATO want a war. It would be a war where even if NATO is superior, the risks would be huge. And there would be huge risks for both sides, everyone is aware of that. It's not worth it to anyone“, points out the former head of the Romanian army.

In the opinion of General Ștefan Dănilă, even if it were to reach an extreme situation for the war to escalate, it would be wrong to expect Russian tanks to reach Paris and Berlin.

“If it came to that, although I personally don't think it will, I think we would rather have pinpoint strikes, as precise as possible, on both sides, on some military and vital objectives of the adversary. In no case would it be a war like in Ukraine. NATO is not Ukraine, and the Russians know this well, and I think they will act accordingly, that is, they will avoid any direct confrontation”adds the general.

As for Romania, General Ștefan Dănilă does not see an imminent danger. The scenario of a Russian invasion is out of the question, he says. “We're thinking about a ground invasion, we're thinking about drone strikes, we're thinking about missile strikes, we're thinking about destabilization, destabilizing actions. It is very different scenario depending on what we expect. A land invasion, in my view, is a fantasy. As I said, in such a war we would rather have well-calculated strikes on important targets, not trench battles and no infantry and tank confrontations. It is good to be prepared for any situation, but I say that the world still has the intelligence to avoid a major confrontation”says the general.

What solutions do we have to prevent war?

General Ștefan Dănilă also referred to the solutions that Romania and the other NATO states have to ensure that a war with Russia remains a simple fiction. In his opinion, a readjustment of the defense industry and serious investments are needed. General Dănilă believes that the European SAFE investment program fits like a glove, but it is realistic.

“I think there is a lot of good intention. We are in a situation where we want to take as much of these funds as possible for investment in the defense industry, but it is still not very clear what we can do in this short time, because it is very difficult to develop defense capabilities that you do not have, industrial capabilities that you do not have to make from scratch. However, there are also some positive premises, I mean, I saw that agreement, it is still not clear to me whether it is an agreement, whether it is a contract, what has been achieved with Rheinmetall for the powder factory. We will see what will be done with the production of individual armaments, but there are still some possibilities. And so I understand that most of the SAFE funds will be directed to investments in the Romanian defense industry.” adds General Dănilă.

Let's forget the Cold War scenarios

And General Virgil Bălăceanu believes that, in the unlikely case of a war between NATO and Russia, the scenario would be different from the one in Ukraine. And this would also be valid if Romania were to be attacked.

“We cannot follow the typical war scenarios of the Cold War period, of that offensive of the Warsaw Pact organization to the English Channel or vice versa, to think of the NATO offensive beyond Moscow, towards the Urals. Things have changed. But in this change one reality must not be forgotten. We are on the eastern border of NATO and we are a front-line state. As such, we must take into account any attack scenario of the Russian Federation, to prepare, to develop my force structure, to prepare my population, economy and territory for defense. This is the very specific preparation for those who are on the front line. This does not mean, I emphasize, that there will be war or that we are heading in that direction now.”General Bălăceanu also points out.

Why are we bombarded with war scenarios

He believes that war scenarios, which abound in the European press and beyond, should not be viewed as if we are in a situation where military conflict can no longer be avoided, but they should not be ridiculed either.

“From the point of view of the scenarios, they belong to the operational planning of the national armies, because that is what they are trained for, for the defense of their own territories. And the other scenarios belong to NATO from the perspective of the regional defense and deterrence plans. The deterrence component is essential in preventing a war. And the defense component is the one that must demonstrate through the capabilities created, that under the conditions of an attack, the respective attack will not succeed, that the goals of such aggression, of such invasions. The better we are prepared for the deterrence posture, but also for the defense posture, the further the war is from our borders and from our lives.” says General Bălăceanu.

On the other hand, should the war escalate, Romania should be prepared for any eventuality.

“Why are we turning all these preparations for defense and deterrence into the premises of the start of war between the Russian Federation and NATO? You have to prepare yourself in every way. The preparation of the front-line states on the Eastern border is unfortunately different, in an imbalance between NATO's north-eastern flank and the south-eastern flank. The situation is different, taking into account the strategic depth of some states, especially the states of Western Europe. And here the preparation must take into account the most likely scenarios. These deterrence and defense preparation scenarios are also known to adversaries,” completes general Bălăceanu.

Preparations should not be confused with the imminence of war

The fact that in Romania, but also in Europe, any military maneuvers and any exercises are seen by a good part of the population as a sign of an inevitable war is wrong.

“We transform the movement of a small column with military equipment for exercises or even for the December 1st parade into Romania's entry into the war. We must realize under the spectrum of defense psychology that only a good defense, a good preparation for defense creates the conditions for the deterrence we were talking about. You will not remove the war by not preparing, by not developing your capabilities, by not preparing the idea of resistance at the level of society in the event of aggression. And to prevent a classic war, a conventional war against NATO, the allies must create their capabilities, especially the member states in Europe, so that NATO's defense and deterrence posture is as real as possible. It is also valid for Romania, valid for all NATO member states”concludes General Virgil Bălăceanu.