Will cheaper loans increase apartment prices? New forecast for 2026

Until the end of the first quarter of 2026, the current situation on the housing market is likely to remain unchanged (slight price changes), however, in the following quarters, an increase in average transaction prices of apartments is possible by a few percent – estimate PKO BP economists. This will be supported by growing housing demand and a stable offer of developer apartments

“In the perspective of a year (4Q25-3Q26), in the base scenario, we expect the current market situation (slight price changes) to remain until the end of Q1 2026, and in the following quarters the recovery will strengthen, resulting in an increase in average transaction prices of apartments by a few percent,” PKO BP wrote in the report.

This will be supported by growing housing demand, stimulated by 6 reductions in interest rates in 2025 (further reductions possible in 2026) and an increase in the creditworthiness of households, as well as a stable offer of developer apartments – it was added.

As PKO BP economists point out, on the supply side, important reasons for price increases that accumulate in subsequent quarters include: an increase in the prices of plots for residential development related to the possibility of limiting their supply after municipalities adopt general plans according to new rules, costs of amending technical conditions, high prices of construction services, a probable increase in real estate tax in relation to apartments unsold by developers and the costs of the so-called Shelter Act.

“The scenario of a decline in housing prices caused by strong demand and supply shocks related to the geopolitical situation cannot be ruled out. The announcements of the introduction of cadastral tax have a negative impact on housing demand, especially investment demand,” economists note.

The authors of the report indicate that in the baseline scenario, further development of the housing market can be expected within a decade.

“Population decline will weaken quantitative needsbut at the same time, quality needs will become increasingly stronger. Housing demand will be generated by greater housing aspirations of the next generation, suburbanization, the need to replace the decapitalized housing stock and the housing needs of immigrants,” it was written.

“The scenario of stagnation or contraction of the housing market would materialize in the event of overregulation of the housing sector or a breakdown of growth trends in the Polish economy,” it added. (PAP Business)

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