Wages are up, housing is rebounding and the stock market leader's record is high. A week on the charts

It was another week of October full of important macroeconomic data. We learned new data from the labor market, the Central Statistical Office published a package of data on construction, and there was also something happening on the raw materials market. Welcome to a week on the charts.

According to the Central Statistical Office data for September 2025, the dynamics of average wages in the enterprise sector turned out to be in line with expectations. Workers in the information and communication sectors earned the most. Wage pressure is stabilizing at above 7 percent. It is worth noting that average nominal salaries when converted into European currency are less than minimum wages in several Western European countries. Employment in Poland has fallen again.

After weeks of crazy increases, we finally saw an equally sharp correction in the precious metals markets. On Tuesday, gold fell by more than 5%, and the prices of silver, palladium and platinum fell by more than 7%.

In September, the number of completed apartments, building permits and new construction projects by developers increased – according to data from the Central Statistical Office. However, taking into account the entire third quarter, it was poor in terms of construction starts by developers.

The September reading from the Central Statistical Office in the manufacturing sector showed a clear recovery in the Polish economy. The reading overshadowed the already positive forecast, showing that the sold value of the Polish industry grew at the fastest pace since April 2024. However, economists point out that it is too early to celebrate.

Periodic data on apartment sales from the largest listed developers show a recovery in the real estate market. Each of the big five sold more than a year ago, and including smaller companies, the increase in the number of apartments sold amounted to nearly 6%. The quarterly statistics are the best this year, and the stock exchange leader has sold the most apartments in history.

September brought a significant increase in retail sales in Poland. Nevertheless, its scale somewhat disappointed most economists who predicted even higher sales dynamics.

Polish public debt, calculated according to the ESA2010 methodology, amounted to 58.1% at the end of the second quarter. GDP vs. 57.3 percent GDP in the first quarter of 2025 and compared to 52.0 percent GDP in Q2 2024, and the debt growth rate is the second fastest in the EU – Eurostat reported.

Euro area government #debt at 88.2% of GDP in Q2 2025 (compared with 87.7% in Q1 2025) https://t.co/Hsa01qLqbO pic.twitter.com/iBm32J3vp3

— EU_Eurostat (@EU_Eurostat) October 21, 2025

Although September is usually the hottest month on the rental market, with the highest demand, this year brought a clear correction in rates – according to Otodom Analytics data. Discounts exceeding 3%. m/m were nothing exceptional, and in one of the largest Polish cities the average asking prices were even lower than three years ago.

September brought a further increase in consumer inflation in the United States. The official CPI rose at an annual rate of 3%, the fastest pace since January. Despite this, there is a widespread belief in the market that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates.

prepared by COGS

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