Specialists' estimates for the beginning of 2026 point to a possible decrease in IRCC, which could also significantly reduce mortgage rates, according to calculations made by specialists for “The Truth”.
Mortgage rates could fall in 2026
“For a calculation simulation for next yearfor a mortgage loan of 250,000 lei contracted for a period of 30 years, with variable interest (IRCC + 3.50%), the monthly rate would be 2,042 lei (mortgage loan with a value of 250,000 lei, contracted for a period of 30 years, variable interest consisting of IRCC + 3.50%, the amount calculated for IRCC being 5.67%)”told “truth” Alexandru Rădulescu, managing partner of SVN Romania | Credit & Financial Solutions, the exclusive partner of Ipotecare.ro.
“However, we would like to make a few points:
- over 98% of new mortgages granted in 2025 are fixed-rate. And after the expiration of the fixed interest period, a refinance can be made depending on the interest rates practiced at that time – for example, the average fixed mortgage interest for loans granted at the beginning of 2023 was about 7.75%, lower than the average variable interest at that time, which was 8.10%. If the respective credit was contracted with a fixed interest rate in the first 3 years, this period will expire at the beginning of next year, the average fixed interest rate estimated for Q1 2026 being lower compared to the initial level of fixed interest rate;
- SVN Credit calculations based on BNR data and data from the banking market show that the average value of a newly contracted mortgage at the end of Q3 2025 reached 65,000 euros nationally, the equivalent of approx. 329,550 lei.
- if we take into account a mortgage loan in the amount of 329,550 lei, with a fixed interest rate of 5.55% per year and a repayment period of 30 years, the monthly rate would be 1,881 lei”he declared for “The Truth”.
Irina Chițu: The rate will drop to 2,044 lei per month
Contacted by phone, Irina Chițu, director of Finzoom, told “truth” that the IRCC will be 5.68% from January 1, 2026, which will also lead to lower mortgage rates.
“The rate will decrease to 2,044 lei per month, calculated to a mortgage loan of 250,000 lei contracted for a period of 30 years, with variable interest (IRCC+3.50%).
Although inflation and interest rates remain high, the decrease of IRCC from 6.06% to 5.68% from January 1st brings a breath of fresh air for Romanians who have variable interest loans dependent on IRCC. Monthly rates will drop modestly, but the signal is important in a context of still high costs. For consumers, it's a step in the right direction, but financial prudence remains essential.
And further, bank offers with fixed interest rates around 5%-6% are preferable to loans with variable interest rates, both for refinancing and for new loans”. said Irina Chițu for “Adevărul”
IRCC increased from October 1, 2025 to 6.06%. Its value is calculated based on data from Q2/2025 (April-June 2025).
Currently, the rate is 2,113 lei per month, which means that from January the decrease will be 69 lei, according to Finzoom.
IRCC will decrease to 5.67% in the first quarter of 2026
IRCC will decrease to 5.67% in the first quarter of 2026, a similar value to that recorded at the beginning of this year. And the fixed interest rates registered on the mortgage segment should decrease in the first months of next year, to an average of 5.55%, according to an analysis carried out by SVN Credit Romania, from the level of approximately 5.70% recorded in the last quarter of this year.
The 5.55% forecast for fixed mortgage rates at the start of 2026 will be the third lowest on record in four years, while the average variable rate, estimated at 8.17% and composed of IRCC plus a fixed margin of 2.5%, will be the fourth lowest on record since the start of 2023 to date.
The key interest rate could fall again in the second quarter
The second quarter of next year could bring another reduction in interest rates, SVN Credit Romania calculations based on the current daily values of the IRCC indicating a provisional level of approximately 5.58% of the reference indicator – the level of the IRCC is established according to the daily quotations of the reference indicator recorded two quarters ago.
2025 was characterized by a stability of the mortgage interest rates applied in the first nine months of the year, the fixed ones being in the range of 5.45% – 5.70% throughout the year, while the IRCC indicator varied in the range of 5.55% – 6.06% in the last months of the year.
“2025 will set new records for the annual volumes of mortgage loans granted in Romania, both for new loans approved for the purchase of homes and taking into account all forms of refinancing and conversions. And 2026 promises to be at least as good a year, in the absence of macroeconomic events with a strong negative impact – in the short term, the most important factor will be the evolution of the inflation rate, which will also determine the evolution of loan interest rates“, commented Alexandru Rădulescu.
2025 will most likely end with a new record of mortgage loans granted in Romania. The most recent statistics published by the Central Bank show that in the first ten months of this year mortgage loans worth 9.2 billion euros were granted nationally, an increase of 26% compared to the first ten months of 2024 – this volume also includes refinancing, conversions, transfers and restructurings.
The number of houses and apartments sold nationally in the first ten months of 2025 was 2.7% lower compared to the result recorded in the first ten months of 2024, while the volume of residential sales in the Bucharest – Ilfov region decreased in the same period by 5.7% compared to the first ten months of 2024.
