This will be enough for health in 2040. Medical costs are growing faster than premium revenues

In 2040, the financial gap in health care may reach PLN 171 billion – according to the report of the National Institute of Public Health and the Federation of Polish Entrepreneurs published on Tuesday. The financial deficit in the system is growing faster than expected, its authors noted.

The authors of the report “Financial gap in health care. Long-term challenges” emphasized that in the next 15 years the imbalance of costs and revenues will deepen, because the needs of patients will continue to grow and the number of working people will decrease. An aging society will need care to a greater extent, and the current financing system, based on health insurance premiums, is not immune to the departure of such a large number of employees from the market, the report noted.

This is how the gap will grow

In the baseline scenario assuming that medical costs will increase at the same rate as in the last few years, the shortfall in revenues relative to costs in 2040 will be PLN 171 billion, which will constitute approx. 3.4 percent. GDP, and in 2060 – PLN 434 billion, which will constitute approx. 7.1%. GDP – according to the report.

The counterfactual scenario shows that the gap may grow more slowly, but this requires reducing cost pressures on the system. According to this model, the shortfall in revenues relative to costs in 2040 will amount to PLN 112 billion, which will constitute approximately 2.2%. GDP, and in 2060 – PLN 315 billion, i.e. approx. 5.1%. GDP.

The financial gap will have to be partially compensated by private spending (out-of-pocket) of citizens or supplemented with additional public funds from outside the contribution stream. In the base scenario, it will be approximately 5,000. PLN per person per year in 2040 and approx. 13 thousand PLN in 2060

“The financial deficit in health care is growing faster than expected,” we read in the report. It was emphasized that this is the result of the overlap of several trends:

• rising costs of benefits,
• budget planning in too short a time frame
• an increasing number of patients requiring care.

Strong demographic pressure

It was noted that the health care system would be subject to strong demographic pressure in the coming years. On the one hand, due to the increase in the number of older people, the demand for health care services will increase. On the other hand, the outflow of people from the labor market, while maintaining a system based largely on contributions to income from work, will lead to a deepening imbalance between the revenues and costs of the health care system.

Demographic forecasts indicate a dynamic aging process of Polish society, we read in the report. In the coming years, the population of men will decrease from 18.67 million to 17.03 million in 2040 and to 14.68 million in 2060. In the case of women, from 19.87 million to 18.15 million in 2040 and to 15.46 million in 2060. According to the “Population forecast for 2023-2060” by 2060, the decline in the number of people of working age will be from 25%. up to 40 percent Meanwhile, the health care system is based mainly on revenues from health insurance premiums.

Recommendations of the report's authors

The authors of the report recommend urgently limiting the increase in the costs of providing health care services above the value of inflation in the economy, and regulating in the law the method of supplementing revenues in the health care system from sources other than those related to work or business activity. Further recommendations concern the expansion of the tax base to include fees related to the consumption of products with proven harmful effects on health, as well as the verification of groups that are privileged or exempt from paying health insurance contributions. They also recommend developing a multi-year strategy for financing the health care system that will take into account long-term demographic trends.

The National Institute of Public Health PZH – National Research Institute is responsible for monitoring the health situation and assessing the health needs of the population in Poland.

The Federation of Polish Entrepreneurs is an employers' organization and a member of the Social Dialogue Council. It represents the interests of enterprises and institutions associated with it.

Two medical summits were held at the beginning of December: organized by the Minister of Health Jolanta Sobierańska-Grenda and President Karol Nawrocki. They focused on the problems of financing health care. The National Health Fund deficit next year is estimated at approximately PLN 23 billion. The budget plan for 2026 assumes that PLN 247.8 billion will be allocated to health care. (PAP)

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