Jakóbik: Cutting off Russian gas was possible as early as 2023. There was a lack of political will

If politicians wanted it, an agreement on ending the import of Russian gas to the EU would be realistic as early as 2023, Wojciech Jakóbik from the Center for Energy Security told PAP. He also drew attention to the attack on the Russian shadow fleet, which in his opinion was an addition to the unfair sanctions.

The Council of the European Union, i.e. the member states and the European Parliament, announced on the night from Tuesday to Wednesday that they had reached an agreement to end the import of Russian gas to the EU by 2027. This is part of efforts to make the EU independent of energy resources from Russia.

After Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, the European Union quickly adopted unprecedentedly harsh sanctions against Moscow. Since then, a total of 19 sanctions packages have been introduced targeting key sectors of the Russian economy and political elites. However, Moscow has found ways to bypass these measures, including through loopholes in trade restrictions and using third-country intermediaries.

This could have been done earlier

In October, 12 percent came from Russia. gas imported to the EU, while before Moscow launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, this percentage was 45%. Gas from Russia is still imported by, among others, Hungary, France and Belgium, Reuters reported.

– This agreement is not sanctions, it is regulations that are intended to remain in force forever. Now we can complete the process that until now lacked political will, said Wojciech Jakóbik from the Center for Energy Security, Energy Drink podcast. He added that thanks to this agreement, the rest of the EU countries can make up for what Poland and Lithuania did immediately.

From April 2023, 100 percent. raw material processed in Orlen's refineries in Poland and Lithuania comes from alternative sources.

According to the expert, If politicians wanted it, such an agreement could be operational as early as 2023.

Shadow fleet circumvents sanctions

International sanctions imposed on Russia for its aggression in Ukraine also celebrates the so-called Russian shadow fleet. These are old ships transporting Russian crude oil, which the Kremlin uses to sell the raw material at prices higher than the limit provided for in the sanctions. In October this year Volodymyr Zelensky reported that the Russians use tankers not only to earn money for the war, but also for intelligence and even sabotage activities.

Last Friday, two tankers belonging to the Russian shadow fleet exploded in the Black Sea, near the Bosphorus Strait. A day later, a Ukrainian official admitted that Ukrainian naval drones had attacked two sanctioned tankers that were en route to a Russian port to load oil destined for foreign markets.

Also on Tuesday, the Russian tanker Mi Volga 2, sailing from Russia to Georgia, was attacked in the Black Sea. The attacked ship was carrying sunflower oil, the Turkish portal Hamerla reported.

– Destroying even a few units will not significantly reduce the volume of supplies from Russia, Jakóbik said. He recalled, however, that disruption of supplies in water areas may result in an increase in raw material prices.

War risk rates for a standard seven-day cruise to Ukrainian ports have risen to about 0.5%, according to Reuters. compared to 0.4 percent a week earlier.

Insurance for Russian Black Sea ports, which usually carries a higher rate, was valued at an amount ranging from 0.65 percent. to 0.8 percent, while last week it was approximately 0.6 percent.

Ukrainians attack Russian energy industry

Jakóbik also pointed out that the growing risk for Russia is related to the fact that Ukrainians carry out attacks not only at sea, but also at oil terminals.

On the night of November 14, the Ukrainian army attacked the naval base and oil terminal in Novorossiysk. After the attack, the port of Novorossiysk and the nearby terminal of the Caspian Oil Pipeline Consortium, through which a fifth of Russia's oil is exported, suspended operations. In Novorossiysk, two moorings servicing Suezmax tankers with a deadweight capacity of 140,000 tonnes were damaged. tone.

– All this together increases the risk related to Russian oil supplies, insurance fees, and margins – noted the expert.

Sanctions against the Russian Ghost Fleet – as he claims – are still insufficient, full of holes and expanded too slowly. According to the expert, Ukraine complements this process by attacking tankers illegally smuggling Russian oil.

The expert emphasized that Russian supplies are becoming less and less important for the Western market. – There is an increasing availability of alternatives on the market, so the greatest economic consequences are in Russia, which remains dependent on the sale of these raw materials – he said.

The tankers attacked on November 28 are on the list of ships subject to international sanctions imposed on Russia after the aggression against Ukraine in February 2022. The ships were not carrying any cargo at the time of the attacks. (PAP)

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