1% of Russian men died in Ukraine, latest estimates say. A chart shows how little territory Moscow has gained over the past three years in exchange for losses

Over the past three years, Russia has captured only 1.45 percent of Ukraine's territory, writes The Economist magazine, which uses maps from the Institute for the Study of War, a think-tank based in Washington.

With the exception of a foray into Russia's Kursk region, Ukraine has lost territory almost constantly from 2022 to the present. And the advance of the Russians was somewhat faster this year than in 2024.

In 2025, Russian forces have so far captured 4,562 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory, according to calculations by The Economist magazine, which uses maps from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a Washington-based think-tank.

By comparison, Russia captured 3,734 square kilometers in 2024.

In November, Russian troops made some of the most significant progress this year: to be exact, they captured 690 square kilometers in the last 30 days.

The Kremlin wants the situation on the battlefield to influence the tone of the peace talks, and Russia has claimed control of the town of Pokrovsk on the eve of a key day of talks in Moscow.

A slow pace

However, even at the faster pace of late, Russia's overall progress has remained slow.

Over the past three years, Russia has captured only 1.45 percent of Ukraine's territory, which is home to about the same proportion of its population as before the invasion. And not a single major city fell into Russian hands.

Moscow fought for 14 months to fully capture Pokrovsk, which, with a population of 61,000, was only the 73rd largest city in Ukraine before the war.

Even now, the ISW says it has not completely fallen, despite the Kremlin's claims.

If, for example, Russia wants to gain full control over the eastern Ukrainian regions of Kherson, Zaporozhye, Donetsk and Luhansk, it needs to conquer another 20,345 square kilometers. At the current rate, the fight to achieve this goal would last until May 2028.

Huge costs

Russia's advance on the battlefield came at an enormous cost.

The Economist's estimate suggests that between 1 million and 1.35 million Russian soldiers have been killed or wounded in the war so far. This number is probably higher than the number of American soldiers killed or wounded in World War II.

An estimated 1% of the Russian male population of pre-war conscription age has so far died in Ukraine.

Russia may find it increasingly difficult to finance its war effort if, as expected, oil prices fall next year.

Other factors, however, suggest that Russia's progress could accelerate in the coming months, writes The Economist. Ukraine's losses on the battlefield are also severe, and the country is facing a crisis of combat power.

Much of the fighting in Ukraine has recently taken place in urban areas, yielding small but potentially strategically important territorial gains. Even small advances in places like Pokrovsk could be stepping stones to larger advances.

Russia also appears to be gaining an advantage over Ukraine in the drone war, allowing it to strike the enemy far beyond the front lines more effectively.