Banking analysts predict significant growth in the Russian mortgage market in 2026

According to preliminary estimates by VTB, in 2026, mortgage issuance in Russia may increase by about a quarter, amounting to about 5.3 trillion rubles. The segment will become more balanced: the ratio of government and market programs will reach parity.

This is the forecast on the eve of the 16th VTB Investment Forum “RUSSIA CALLING!” was presented by Alexey Okhorzin, Senior Vice President, Head of the Bank's Retail Business Products Department.

The mortgage market in Russia is gradually recovering following the reduction in the key rate. Until the end of the year, the bank's experts predict high borrower activity in the real estate market, with a traditional peak in December. VTB expects that in the second half of 2025, mortgage sales on the market will amount to about 2.7 trillion rubles (an increase of more than a third by the second half of 2024), and at the end of the whole year will reach 4.2 trillion rubles (a decrease of 13% year-on-year due to the “drawdown” in the first half of the year).

Growth potential is constrained by high market lending rates. The main volume of sales comes from government programs: according to VTB, by the end of 2025, 3 out of 4 transactions in Russia will be concluded under them. Another factor remains the continuation of the “savings season”: despite the reduction in the key rate, Russians can still place funds on deposits at an increased interest rate and receive significant passive income.

“In 2026, a “warming” should begin in the mortgage market, as a result of which sales will become a record in recent years, exceeding 5 trillion rubles. It is important that after the “turbulence” it will become balanced again: for one market loan there will be one preferential loan, and not three as now. At the same time, the refinancing expected by many is unlikely to have a significant impact on the market: the pool of loans issued at peak rates is actually small. For example, at VTB, every fifth mortgage loan with a rate above 22% has already been repaid,” noted Alexey Okhorzin.

After determining the final parameters of the “family mortgage” and new requirements for confirming the income of borrowers, VTB will further clarify its forecast for 2026.

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